2015 Oscar Predictions

Well, folks: today is the day. In just a few short hours we'll see who has been selected as the winners of the 87th Academy Awards. "Imagine What's Possible" is the theme of this year's show, which promises to be jam-packed with performers and a celebration of the best movies of 2014. This year, I'm thankful to say that most of the films selected are honoring art instead of politics, so I'm excited to see how many of my favorite films do. So, without further adieu, here are my predictions for tonight's show... IN ALL 24 CATEGORIES! Here we go, speed round:

Best Picture:

Click here for my breakdown of all the nominees. This race is still locked pretty tight between Birdman and Boyhood, with American Sniper the likeliest dark horse contender. It's box office and intense media coverage right now give it a slight edge, though Academy history is not on the side of popular favorites (sorry, Avatar, Star Wars). Due to the Academy's preferential voting methods, the near-unanimous love for Boyhood could give it the edge to move forward. A Best Picture win for that film seems fitting and deserved, and I'm betting it takes the gold tonight. Don't be surprised or upset if Birdman wins however, because like Boyhood, it represents an exciting innovation in cinema that the Oscars should recognize. Either one is fine with me (though obviously I want Boyhood to win the most).
Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Should Win: Boyhood

Best Director:

Another 50/50 split between Birdman and Boyhood, this one is likely to go to Alejandro G Inarritu for his startling work with both a phenomenal cast and amazing cinematography. It's definitely a director's picture, and though Linklater's passion and commitment to the project cannot be ignored, I think the Academy is going to want to split the love between the two pictures. Like the past few years, there will be a Best Picture/Best Director split to shower the love between two great films. And if Birdman's going to get either, it's looking like it'll be Inarritu's day.
Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Could Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Should Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Click here to see my full coverage of this category. The only real unpredictable acting category, at this point it looks like Redmayne will take the gold for his physical transformation as Stephen Hawking. However, if Birdman love and career victories prevail (and rightfully so in this case), we will see Keaton take his first-ever Academy Award. There seems to be a lot of love for him, but you cannot argue with SAG's and BAFTA's for Redmayne. Keaton had the more complex and emotionally challenging role, but Redmayne's is just too appetizing and flashing to overlook.
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Could Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Should Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

Click here to see what I have to say about all five nominees. Vote for Julianne Moore. Just trust me.
Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Could Win: Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Should Win: Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

Check out my thoughts of the nominees here. Go for Simmons. Wait, you want to lose your office poll? In that case, GO ROBERT DUVALL!
Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Could Win: Edward Norton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Should Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

Check out what I think of all five people here. Wait, ANOTHER lock?? This ceremony may not be too exciting, after all...
Will Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Could Win: Emma Stone, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Should Win: Emma Stone, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Best Original Screenplay:

Again, with all three of the major nominees in contention here, Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler do not stand much of a shot. Much like Best Picture/Best Director will split to spread the love, the Academy will likely give auteur Wes Anderson his first Oscar for favorite The Grand Budapest Hotel. He's won a slew of guild awards so far, and this is a great way of honoring the man since Best Picture/Best Director are likely going to someone else. He has a lot of respect in the industry, so tonight is likely his for the taking (of this particular award, at least).
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Not nearly as exciting or interesting as Best Original Screenplay is it's Adapted counterpart, which features fairly non-interesting written works. Since it's lost steam pretty much everywhere else, I'm placing my bets on The Imitation Game, solely because it won the WGA. Don't lose sight of potential favorite Theory or fan-favorite Whiplash though, because they could upset.
Will Win: The Imitation Game
Could Win: The Theory of Everything 
Should Win: Whiplash

Best Animated Feature:

After a rather major snub, there's really no precedent for what will Best Animated Feature (except maybe the Globes, but they don't really count). Just because the first one lost, and the series is highly regarded, I'm betting it's going to go to How to Train Your Dragon 2. Though Disney could bring Big Hero 6 to victory, and this could be a good year for one of the foreign films. Just not The Boxtrolls.
Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could Win: Song of the Sea
Should Win: Big Hero 6

Best Documentary Feature:

Citizenfour. No competition, and there really shouldn't be, because it's easily the most accessible, entertaining, and informative documentary since Searching for Sugar Man.
Will Win: Citizenfour
Could Win: Virunga
Should Win: Citizenfour

Best Foreign Language Film:

This is a really great category. Ida is the shortest, a throwback to Polish New Wave, black-and-white, about WWII, and is up for Best Cinematography. Leviathan is a controversial film about Russian politics today, and Wild Tales is a huge crowd-pleasing comedy. Due to Netflix's ease of access and short run time, I'm thinking it's going to be Ida.
Will Win: Ida
Could Win: Leviathan
Should Win: Ida

Best Original Score:

The yucky Theory of Everything score is fairly mundane, as is it's runner-up competition Imitation Game. The Grand Budapest Hotel is the most interesting in these fairly average compositions, so I hope that wins. Though don't bet on it; despite two nominations this year, Desplat is going to lose to favorite Johannsson.
Will Win: The Theory of Everything 
Could Win: The Imitation Game
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Original Song:

The Academy is not going to miss an opportunity to pick a winner from Selma, and seeing as this is the Best Picture nominee's only other mention... well, we'll see you on the podium Common and John Legend. I personally hope Begin Again gets a chance to shine!
Will Win: "Glory", Selma 
Could Win: "Everything is Awesome", The Lego Movie 
Should Win: "Lost Stars", Begin Again

Best Cinematography:

Chivo! Better known as Emanuel Lubezki, Birdman's newly-minted Oscar-winner (for Gravity last year) is going to take home the gold again this year. But for some more truly gorgeous photography, look no further than Ida and Mr. Turner, crazy works of cinematography that proudly made their way to the final five. Grand Budapest is also kind of fun with the way Anderson plays with aspect ratios and symmetry, though how Unbroken made it in is beyond me.
Will Win: Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Best Costume Design:

The popular Collen Atwood for dressing Meryl? Or Canonero for getting costumes to work within the quirky world of Wes Anderson? My bets are on the more popular of the two films.
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Into the Woods
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Editing:

Though the frenetic American Sniper and Whiplash could sneak in a few votes, Boyhood's pretty much got this one in the bag. After all, it's already a major commitment to do a film for 12 years, but to make it look so seamless? Pure editing perfection.
Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: Whiplash
Should Win: Boyhood

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Will it be Steve Carrell's nose, Tilda Swinton's near-unrecognziable facial, or the creation of the most fun aliens in the galaxy? I certainly hope it's the last one, though don't underestimate Grand Budapest Hotel's sweep in the technical categories.
Will Win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Production Design:

If you've seen The Grand Budapest Hotel, or really any Wes Anderson movie, you know how gorgeous the production design of the film is. Fantasy forests and space operas ain't got nothin on a reimagining of WWII and symmetrical color pallets.
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Into the Woods
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel


Best Sound Editing/Best Sound Mixing:

Sound editing involves the creation of new sounds, while mixing features the balancing of previously-established noises with the dialogue and music. While the difference is very clear, most Oscar voters don't recognize that, so they typically choose the same winner. In this case, they'll actually honor American Sniper's war footage.
Will Win: American Sniper
Could Win: Interstellar
Should Win: American Sniper for Editing, Whiplash for mixing

Best Visual Effects:

Interstellar is polarizing in terms of opinions, but the visual effects are pretty staggering to behold. However, I'm praying that Dawn of the Planet of the Apes pulls through, because of the breakthroughs of both films in the series made in terms of motion capture.
Will Win: Interstellar
Could Win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Best Live Action Short Film:

I saw all five of these yesterday, and by far the best one was The Phone Call, about a suicide hotline (deep and emotionally heartbreaking material). That it also stars two Oscar honorees, Sally Hawkins and Jim Broadbent, is icing on the cake.
Will Win: The Phone Call
Could Win: Aya
Should Win: The Phone Call

Best Documentary Short Film:

A suicide hotline for veterans will also prevail here.
Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Could Win: Joanna

Should Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Best Animated Short Film:

After robbing Disney Animated Studios last year, AMPAS is going to honor the studio's Feast this year, which was widely seen attached to Big Hero 6. Plus it features a puppy!
Will Win: Feast
Could Win: A Single Life
Should Win: Feast

Well, there you go: all 24 category predictions. Enjoy the show tonight, and remember that this is an honoring of the best films of 2014. Good luck to all your favorites! Thank you!

Oscar Countdown 2015: Best Picture

Welcome to Oscar Countdown 2015! Welcome to the final post, dedicated to Best Picture. Today, we'll be breaking down the eight movies selected by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences as the best films of 2014. While not everyone agrees, and all politics aside, I accept the Academy's choices for the best of the year as a definitive guide to the year that was 2014. I, like everyone in the world, would rather see different nominees here, but I am also very happy to appreciate and celebrate the films that AMPAS have selected. So let's get started with breaking down each of the nominees for the Best Picture of 2014!

But before we do, let's look at all eight nominees together:

And now, on to the show!

American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)

Clint Eastwood's examination of Chris Kyle is an intense, thrilling ride into the mind of the deadliest sniper in US history. With a fine performance by my current obsession Bradley Cooper, the film has become a shockingly massive box office smash, almost taking the spot of the highest grossing domestic film of 2014. It hits all the chords of a typical, gung ho military flick that the Academy tends to favor, but it also addresses the severe problem of PTSD among returning soldiers (interestingly enough, a documentary short up this year also deals with that issue, pertaining to a suicide hotline for veterans). American Sniper also represents a silent threat for Best Picture in so much that because of its growing popularity and late-season entrance into the awards game, it's easily the freshest on voters minds. This gives it a slight edge, though it'll be hard to see the movie pull a Million Dollar Baby and show up the competition. But who knows- the strong support for this film may pull through in the end (and who doesn't want to see Cooper win an Oscar for producing?). Oscar Chances: Medium

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Alejandro G. Innaritu)

A PGA. A DGA. A SAG. These aren't just random acronyms- these are all the guild awards, arguably the three most important ones, that Birdman has won in the past month. Though considered second after Boyhood a few weeks ago, Birdman now looks into the position to take Best Picture by storm. The film, much like it's close competition, is fairly experimental: designed to look like a single long take, the film bends reality and offers a dark comedy about the state of showbiz today. Not to mention the fact that it has a crazy good cast in it, filled with some of Hollywood's finest, led by the fearless Michael Keaton. It ties Grand Budapest for the most nominations, and though it certainly won't win them all, it may take the greatest prize of the evening. For with the exception of Braveheart's defeat of Apollo 13 in 1995, no film has ever won all three of these guild awards and not won Best Picture. I'd be ok with Birdman winning, because even though it's not my favorite of the possibilities, it's so different than any other film to win Best Picture. Oscar Chances: High

Boyhood (Richard Linklater)

The sentimental favorite of the evening just happens to be one of the best movies of this decade. Linklater's sprawling, intimate yet simple look into the life of a boy from age six to eighteen. By this point, you know the story: Linklater filmmed for a few weeks every year from 2002 to 2014, cumulating in a three-hour opus where you actually see these characters age. It's unlike anything ever attempted before, and something that likely won't happen again anytime soon. For this reason, it stands on the same shoulders of the sprawling Lawrence of Arabia and the epic Gone with the Wind in terms of representing breakthroughs in cinema. I love this little movie, and hopefully enough Academy voters agree that they do too; and, with preferential ballots (don't ask), most believe will likely love it enough to win Best Picture. A Best Picture Oscar would be the ultimate end to Boyhood's long road. Oscar Chances: High

The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)

Ah Wes. Poor ol' boy hasn't been nominated for Best Picture until this film, but man does he deserve it. Even a February release date hasn't slowed down this titanic picture from racking up many technical awards over the past few months, notably in the screenplay department. With a gorgeous production design, escapist caricatures of a fantasy period piece, and many great performances (including the shamefully overlooked Ralph Fiennes), Grand Budapest ticks off a lot of buttons that Academy members like. In addition, it shares the most nominations with Birdman (with nine a piece), so the love is clearly there. Finally, add Wes's lack of an Oscar win up to this point, and you may get a huge shove for the Grand Budapest. Though, they may feel all this and give him Best Original Screenplay, which would be great as well. Oscar Chances: Medium-High

The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)

More so than any other nominee this year, The Imitation Game actually tries to be a prestige Best Picture contender in it's own creation. The film desperately reeks of Oscar attention, and the trick paid off- up for eight nominations, the Weinstein's favorite child right now won over the the voting body. It deals with some topical issues, but always keeps them restrained enough where they are not overly risky in their execution. With that in mind, Game is mostly an entertaining period piece with good performances and an amusing screenplay. But while the film appears to be an awards frontrunner in its look, it's hardly won any precursor awards, despite nominations at virtually every show. The adapted screenplay seems to have the film's best shot, because even with so many nominations and an obviously popular method, The Imitation Game hardly looks like a strong Best Picture contender. Oscar Chances: Low-Medium

Selma (Ava DuVernay)

The Best Picture contender with only two total nominations, this socially resonant film isn't winning Best Picture. While by no means a perfect film, it still is one of the best of 2014, and the fact that it made the list of the best of the year shows that the Academy really did like it. Slow dialogue scenes suddenly (and sometimes literally) explode into brutal massacres, all over the racial tension that divided America during the 1960's. Oprah gives a heartbreaking turn as a woman who just wants to vote, and this simple right that should be bestowed on all Americans is lost during this time period. Martin Luther King Jr.'s fight for that basic freedom deserves to be recognized, and a Best Picture nomination is a just celebration for the first motion picture to trace that legendary man's actions. I'm looking forward to seeing Common and John Legend celebrate the film by performing "Glory" at the Oscars this Sunday. Oscar Chances: Low

The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)

A case of the performances were better than the movie itself, The Theory of Everything snuck into this list because of two powerhouse performances. Eddie Redmayne physically transforms into the near-impossible-to-repliacte role of Stephen Hawking, while Felicity Jones gives a much more honed and emotional role the humanizing edge. We relate to her story more than his, and find her strength and courage in sticking with him to be hugely inspiring. Nevertheless, besides these two great acting jobs, the film itself is relatively one-key: ugly cinematography mixes with a bland screenplay and phoned-in music score to create your fairly average melodrama. Though the tale is inspiring, and the acting is great, Theory is the most curious of the Best Picture nominees. Oscar Chances: Low 

Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)

The poster says it all: this movie is "electrifying". This is an energetic, frantic, fast-paced thriller... about a jazz band. That simple idea is enough, when done as successfully as Whiplash, to warrant a Best Picture nomination then and there. Though it likely won't win, it's very nice to see my second favorite movie of the year gain last-minute momentum in this race. It's terrifying to behold, and the chemistry between Miles Teller and Oscar-frontrunner J.K. Simmons is nothing short of a miracle. The music is addicting, and reflects the state of mind of our lead character throughout the picture. It honors jazz bands and the cutthroat music industry in more ways than one, and I found the story to be very compelling as well. Whiplash is not going to win Best Picture, but this is definitely one I'll look back on in a few years and say, "I'm glad this made it in." It really was a privilege just for this movie to be nominated. Oscar Chances: Low

Thanks for reading! I'll be posting my final Oscar ballot in the next few days. Until then, go check out some of these great films in theaters before the Academy Awards!

Oscar Countdown 2015: Best Actor in a Leading Role

Welcome to Oscar Countdown 2015! Every Friday for the next two weeks, I'll be breaking down one of the four acting categories, with the final post dedicated to Best Picture. The five individuals in each acting category were selected from literally hundreds of possibilities- so we need to take a moment to honor each of these performances, and acknowledge the major feat of being nominated for an Academy Award. And NEW this year, I have attached videos of each of the actors in an important clip from the film. No spoilers, I promise, but I tried my hardest to find their best, most accessible clips that will give you a taste of their performances before you read about them. This will hopefully put the actors in context with one another as well. (*NOTE: These clips feature EXPLICIT language, so viewer discretion is advised. I do not own these clips, and they are the property of their respective film studios). So, without further adieu, up today is the final acting category... Best Actor in a Leading Role!

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Though it's a movie I didn't particularly enjoy, how could the Academy not nominate Carell for his heavy-makeup, slow-moving psychopath that shows the dark side of the American Dream. The Academy also likes nominating comedic characters doing the rare drama (see: Jonah Hill, Robin Williams), and they seem to like Foxcatcher quite a bit. This is a very different part for Carell, who truly haunts as a cold man on the verge of rupturing. Next to Channing Tatum and Mark Rufallo, he has the showiest role, but he hardly does anything at all. He sits around brooding for most of the picture, and while there is glimmer of potential from him, he really doesn't seem to try and make John DuPont even slightly interesting as a character. But, like I said, Carell has dramatic chops- he just should've chosen a better vehicle to demonstrate them.
Oscar History: This is Carell's first nomination.
Oscar Chances: Low

Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

Bradley Cooper is one of my favorite actors working in cinema today. Since blowing me away in 2012 with Silver Linings Playbook (an Oscar nomination he should have ultimately won), he continued his hot streak with a 2013 nomination for American Hustle, and the Academy obviously couldn't ignore him for his intense portrayal of SEAL sniper Chris Kyle. Packing on tons of muscle and adding a southern drawl, Cooper gives a resonant and effective performance that had me cheering on Oscar Nominations morning. He continuously delivers startling work year after year, and American Sniper gives him the chance to tackle a different character than anything he has done. He demonstrates keen insight into PTSD, and amazes in the war scenes. Plastic babies aside, he also does a good job acting as a troubled father to a loyal family. The film has its faults, but no one can deny the lead actor's virtuosity as Chris Kyle. Cooper, you continue to amaze me, and I look forward to another Oscar-worthy performance in 2015.
Oscar History: This is Cooper's third nomination, after previous nods for Lead Actor in Silver Linings Playbook in 2012, and Supporting Actor in 2013 for American Hustle. He is also a producer for American Sniper, so he received a nomination for Best Picture for that as well.
Oscar Chances: Medium

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

No one seems to be as red-hot in the celebrity scene right now than Benedict Cumberbatch, so his nomination will guarantee viewership and also celebrate his performative abilities. Though the film is so driven for awards prestige it hinders on the point of absurdity, The Imitation Game is nevertheless a well-made biopic, one that's about the triumph of an anti-social cryptographer who singlehandedly won World War II. It's a story worth illuminating, and one that's ever-relevant in the progression of LGBT rights in the world; Alan Turing, Cumberbatch's character, is a gay man wrongly persecuted for his sexual preference, and therefore represents a symbolic hero for the entire community. I'm glad the character is nominated more so than the performance, though Cumberbatch nevertheless captures the spirit of Turing with finely-tuned comedic timing, emotional fragility, and an overall career-high job that makes his guaranteed nomination well worth it.
Oscar History: This is Cumberbatch's first nomination.
Oscar Chances: Low-Medium

Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

I have been watching Tim Burton's Batman since the day I was born. As such, I've had this ever-present love for Michael Keaton. So, imagine my surprise to discover that Keaton has actually been holding back all these years, saving his real dramatic power for the perfect role. And Keaton found one in Birdman- a tour de force performance that brings him to the threshold of meta commentary and deep imagination. Keaton is stunningly effective as Riggan Thompson, an actor struggling to make his career mean something by financing, directing, producing, and starring in an adaptation of a classic play. Bending the rules of reality by floating, controlling objects with his mind, and flying into the air, Keaton's performance feels like it's out of a dream, in both the startling performance he gives and the story sandbox in which he plays. I plead Academy voters to give Keaton his career Oscar- it's long overdue, he totally gives the best lead performance of the year, and it's a role which challenges and celebrates the life of an actor. As a bonus, how great is he at giving some emotional and touching speeches?
Oscar History: This is Keaton's first nomination.
Oscar Chances: Medium-High


Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Ok, so as annoying as a quibble as this remains, I cannot stand Eddie Redmayne's voice; I feel like every line of dialogue he says is another attempt to replicate his singing voice from Les Miserables. That being said, Redmayne's physical transformation as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything is a marvel to behold, and his Oscar that's likely coming to him is more than acceptable. Redmayne's performance was also supposedly shot out of sequence, which makes it even more impressive considering the major changes the character makes as the film progresses. Redmayne also does much not to give a heroic view of Hawking, who was known for his sometimes questionable decision-making. This is a popular choice to win Best Actor, and while probably my personal third choice, it's a performance that's hard to ignore. 

Oscar History: This is Redmayne's first nomination.

Oscar Chances: High

So, when it's all said and done, here's what the Lead Actor field is looking like as of February 13th:

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Could Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Should Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Come back next week for the grandaddy of all the awards... Best Picture! Thanks for your continual support. 

Oscar Countdown 2015: Best Actress in a Leading Role

Welcome to Oscar Countdown 2015! Every Friday for the next three weeks, I'll be breaking down one of the four acting categories, with the final post dedicated to Best Picture. The five individuals in each acting category were selected from literally hundreds of possibilities- so we need to take a moment to honor each of these performances, and acknowledge the major feat of being nominated for an Academy Award. And NEW this year, I have attached videos of each of the actors in an important clip from the film. No spoilers, I promise, but I tried my hardest to find their best, most accessible clips that will give you a taste of their performances before you read about them. This will hopefully put the actors in context with one another as well. (*NOTE: These clips feature EXPLICIT language, so viewer discretion is advised. I do not own these clips, and they are the property of their respective film studios). So, without further adieu, up today is by FAR by favorite acting category of the year... Best Actress in a Leading Role!

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

One of the best surprises to come from Oscar Nominations morning came in the form of this Academy Award-winnerm who has been criminally overlooked since her victory in 2007. Funnily enough, Marion Cotillard edged out assumed frontrunner Jennifer Aniston for Cake... with a role that's eerily similar. Both actresses play depressed women, and shed the makeup for popping pills every few minutes. However, the difference here is finesse: while Aniston comes across as loud and fake, Cotillard's performance is much more subdued, and thereby captures the true essence of depression more than Aniston. Cotillard's performance is Two Days, One Night perfectly demonstrates what it's like to experience depression, from body movements to subtle word choices. She doesn't experience love, and doesn't understand how others could possibly love her, leading to a heartbreaking performance that caps off an excellent year for Cotillard (who also starred in The Immigrant to critical acclaim). She's a wonderful actress, and seeing her nominated again gave me so much joy.
Oscar History: Cotillard won Best Actress in 2007 for playing Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose, the first French-speaking role to win this honor.
Oscar Chances: Low 

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Felicity Jones may not have as showy a role as Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything, but she is equally as important in making the movie what it is. As the committed yet individualized Jane Hawking, Jones proves remarkable talent in showing so many emotions through eyes and facial expressions. We feel for her as she tries to chase her own passions, before getting caught up with her husband Stephen's bodily disorder. She makes us feel tired and alone, without any of the credit for taking care of him, and we understand her decisions much more than his. While the weakest of the Best Actress candidates, Jones is nevertheless a talented young actress, with many great things ahead of her for sure. She certainly belongs here.
Oscar History: This is Jones' first nomination. 
Oscar Chances: Medium

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Julianne Moore is going to get a "career win" on Sunday, February 22nd, for her tragic role as a victim of early-set Alzheimer's Disease. And unlike, say, Al Pacino's win for Scent of a Woman, or Christopher Plummer's victory for Beginners, this remains one of Moore's best roles in her fantastic career. It's a dedicated and sympathetic performance that captivates and enchants, with a (mostly) talented team of actors backing her up. With a failing memory and everything to lose, she provides an effective look at a disease that cripples more and more people every day. Moore certainly deserves to win Best Actress this year: not only is she a revelation in Still Alice, but because her consistent dedication to the field of acting and Hollywood in general have earned her the right to finally take the Oscar stage.
Oscar History: Moore has been nominated twice for Best Actress, for The End of the Affair in 1999, and Far From Heaven in 2002. She was nominated for Best Supporting Actress in 1997 and 2002, for Boogie Nights and The Hours, respectively. 
Oscar Chances: High

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

I am so happy that Rosamund Pike has finally received the critical acclaim she deserves. I have loved her ever since 2002's Bond flick Die Another Day, and after staying under the radar all these years, Pike has been up for numerous awards for Best Actress for her fantastic work in Gone Girl. If the movie should only be up for one award (which indeed it is), it should be for Pike's hard to watch, yet so impossibly hard to ignore performance. Without spoilers, and despite the character's objections to the contrary, Pike is indeed "the cool girl", with hair flips, brilliant eye movements, and more to her story than we'll ever know. Watching the film a second time, I also noticed a lot more subtle elements to her performance, and got confirmation that she gives my favorite lead actress performance of the year. Pike's acting job as Amy is nothing less than Amazing. 

Oscar History: This is Pike's first nomination.

Oscar Chances: Low

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

While not one of my favorite actresses around, it's hard to deny that Reese Witherspoon gives a heck of a performance in Wild. Rugged, beaten down by life, tortured by her past, and desperate to be anyone else, real-life hiker Cheryl Strayed's story is filled with an indelible sense of realism. Witherspoon balances all of this, making us sympathetic for a character who's so un-sympathetic. She gets down and dirty in a way that's hard to express, and the film becomes heavy as a result. Dern's nomination was a bit of a shock, but there was no way Witherspoon wasn't getting in a nomination. The irony is that she has won before, for a role not nearly as good as this one.
Oscar History: Witherspoon's only nomination and win was in 2005, for Walk the Line.
Oscar Chances: Medium

So, when it's all said and done, as of February 6th, here's what the Lead Actress field is looking like:

Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Could Win: Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Should Win: Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Hope you enjoyed reading this! Be sure to come back for an analysis of the last acting race!!