Oscar Countdown 2015: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Welcome to Oscar Countdown 2015! Every Friday for the next five weeks, I'll be breaking down one of the four acting categories, with the final post dedicated to Best Picture. In these posts, I will be breaking down each of the five nominees for you guys, so that you have a sense in not only will win the Oscar, but also who gave some of the best performances of the year. The five individuals in each category were selected from literally hundreds of possibilities- so we need to honor each of these actors for even a moment and acknowledge the major feat of being nominated for an Academy Award. And NEW this year, I have attached videos of each of the actors in an important clip from the film. No spoilers, I promise, but tried my hardest to find their best, most accessible clips that will give you a taste of their performances before you read about them. This will hopefully put the actors in context with one another as well. (*NOTE: These clips feature EXPLICIT language, so viewer discretion is advised. I do not own these clips, and they are the property of their respective film studios). So, without further adieu, first up today is... Best Actress in a Supporting Role!

Here are the nominees:

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Arquette has had pretty smooth sailing in terms of raking up awards wins, and her victory at the Academy Awards is all but certain at this point. She certainly deserves it; she gives one of the most nuanced performances of the year, playing a tragic mother figure we grow just as fond of as the titular boy Mason. Watching her gracefully age on the screen is a reminder of our own mortality, and about how the little mistakes in life can add up to have lasting impacts. From one moment to the next, we sense how damaged her character is, until it all builds up to the explosive monologue featured in the scene featured here. It's heartbreaking, and highlights how emotionally invested Arquette is in this film. Out of the four actors in Boyhood, Arquette easily shines the brightest, and she'll take home the award for all the actors featured in the project over twelve years. Expect her to win big on February 22nd.
Oscar History: This is her first nomination.
Oscar Chances: High

Laura Dern, Wild

One of the bigger shocks of Oscar Nominations Day was hearing Laura Dern's name take the wide open fifth Best Supporting Actress slots. A space left open for adventurous picks like Tilda Swinton in Snowpiercer or Rene Russo in Nightcrawler was ultimately filled by a boring candidate, albeit one that's hard to hate. Dern has been a Hollywood mainstay for decades now, and though Wild isn't nearly her best work, the fact that she hasn't been nominated since 1991 is kind of a sin. Her character in Wild is an eternal optimist beaten down by the tragic forces that surround her, and she has the biggest impact on her daughter, who is played by fellow nominee Reese Witherspoon. It's a largely thankless role that gets lost in the shuffle of a not-so-exiciting picture, and while I would have preferred a more exciting pick for Best Supporting Actress, I cannot say I was surprised to see the former frontrunner head back into the campaign trail.
Oscar History: She was nominated for Best Actress in 1991 for Rambling Rose.
Oscar Chances: Low

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

In a movie that screams "OSCAR BAIT", this is the type of role that often gets nominated for seemingly no reason other than major support for the film. But, I'm not going to complain about the nomination solely for the fact that not only is she the best performer in the picture, but also because Knightley herself has had an exceptional year. She's criminally underrated in Begin Again, went back to action star in Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, and did an indie drama that earned good reviews named Laggies. This is one of those MVP nominations, like 2011's Jessica Chastain (for The Help, not nearly her best work of that year). As for her particular performance in The Imitation Game, she stands apart in a world full of men with heart and vitality uncommon in that era. She gives a lot of heart to her performance, and though there's more fleshed out will-they-or-won't-they chemistry with Benedict Cumberbatch than with Mark Ruffalo in Begin Again, she's never reduced to a romantic stereotype. Considering how easy that could have been, that achievement is worth a nomination alone. We need more strong female performers like Knightley who can really delve into a world with both strength and humor. (Also, Dear Academy: PLEASE have Knightley perform "Lost Stars" at the Oscars instead of Adam Levine, I'm begging you. Her version is pure emotion and tragedy, while his sounds like every other Maroon 5 song).
Oscar History: She was nominated for Best Actress in 2005 for Pride and Prejudice.
Oscar Chances: Medium 

Emma Stone, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

One of the most charismatic, hilarious, manic young women in the world today is Emma Stone, and I'm so happy to be including her with this wonderful group of women. She can go anywhere from superhero mainstream (The Amazing Spider-Man 2) to this artful drama with soul and vibrance that makes me excited about New Hollywood. Her performance in Birdman is so raw and edgy that it's hard to realize you're actually watching a performance. She yells, curses, chews through the scenery, and more than holds her own against powerhouse performances from Michael Keaton, Edward Norton, and Naomi Watts. This monologue in particular is so powerful and prophetic that it constitutes on the most unforgettable segments in a picture with so many. As much as I loved Arquette in Boyhood, the performances in Birdman were much more refined, and Stone is one of the leading arguments in that opinion. I thought she was brilliant in both of her films this year, and I couldn't be more interested to see what she does next.
Oscar History: This is her first nomination.
Oscar Chances: Medium-High

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

The continual love and support for the incomparable Meryl Streep continues in 2015 with her showy role in Into the Woods. I guess the Academy was upset they didn't nominate her for Mamma Mia! in 2008- after all, they've nominated her for everything else besides a musical. While she's certainly better in Into the Woods, she's one of the weaker links in the chain of actors in that wonderful Disney musical. She belts out "Stay with Me" and "Last Midnight" with the ferocity of a tiger and the elegance of a Queen, but besides those two show-stoppers, she doesn't excite all that much in the film. Much like Dern, the Academy could have spiced things up in this category with some new nominees, but they just had to nominate Meryl... again.
Oscar History: With 19 nominations to date including this one, we'll just stick with her Best Supporting Actress bids: she was nominated for The Deer Hunter in 1978, and in 2002 for Adaptation. She won for Best Supporting Actress in 1979 for Kramer vs. Kramer.
Oscar Chances: Low-Medium

So, after all is said and done, this is what it's looking like as of January 23:

WILL WIN: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
COULD WIN: Emma Stone, Birdman

SHOULD WIN: Emma Stone, Birdman

Thanks for reading everyone! I hope to see you next week for... Best Actor in a Supporting Role!