Robert Duvall, The Judge
Much like Best Actress in a Supporting Role, the Academy chose some weird filler nominees to bulk up a category with an otherwise easy to call winner. Duvall was one of the names that no one was expecting, despite the SAG nomination and some critic's attention. In fact, no one really liked the movie he co-starred with Robert Downey, Jr. in, The Judge, even though the veteran actor's arguably the least objectionable element about the picture. It also seems odd to me that Warner Bros. keeps pushing Duvall as an Oscar contender, because frankly, Duvall doesn't even seem like he wants to be in the movie in the first place. It certainly comes across that way in his performance, and while I love seeing classic actors getting awards attention.... really, Duvall was your choice? It's a cold performance from a frigid film, and the plethora of actors that could have been nominated in his place are staggering. Oh well, the Academy has spoken- at least we get to witness his first nomination in over a decade.
Oscar History: Nominated for a total of six Oscars, so we'll focus on just his Supporting Actor bids; they include The Godfather in 1972, Apocalypse Now in 1979, and A Civil Action in 1998. He won Best Actor in a Leading Role for his work in Tender Mercies in 1983.
Oscar Chances: Low
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
A man who has worked with director Richard Linklater for over a decade now, Boyhood father Ethan Hawke gives one of the simplest, yet elegant, performances of his career. He fits in with the narrative as an absent father, but his role becomes so much more than that- taking him in a direction that's hard to predict and marvelous to behold. Plus, the film being Boyhood, we seem him age ten years right before our very eyes. His cinematic experiences show in each facial expression, each nuanced action Hawke makes during the movie, and we can tell how heavy his own life is weighing into the performance. Though Patricia Arquette is getting all the awards for her role in Boyhood, Hawke has always faithfully stood by her as a fellow nominee; and, unlike most of the nominees in this category, he actually deserves to be here.
Oscar History: He was nominated for Best Supporting Actor in 2001 for Training Day. Notably, he has also been nominated twice for Best Adapted Screenplay- both times working with Richard Linklater.
Oscar Chances: Low-Medium
Edward Norton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
I've never particularly been a major fan of Edward Norton, but he does do an excellent job in Birdman... mainly because he's playing a caricature of himself. The only other potential for upset for the leader in this category, Norton spectacularly gives it his all in a movie that recently won Best Cast from the Screen Actor's Guild Awards. A film that demands long takes and intense pressure from its actors, Norton seems to relish in the opportunity to "bare his soul" and "wrestle with complex human emotions"- all while getting drunk for "authenticity"'s sake. It's a funny role in a sometimes serious, sometimes comedic picture, and definitely one that's more showy than many of his counterparts. He's not the best part of the film, but he's certainly not the worst. Ironically enough, my favorite Edward Norton role is probably this one, because it just seems the most... honest.
Oscar History: He was nominated for Best Supporting Actor in 1996 for Primal Fear, and for Best Actor in American History X in 1998.
Oscar Chances: Medium
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Another cold performance from a freezing film, Ruffalo nevertheless gives the best performance among the three leads in Foxcatcher. His best scene (and likely the one that netted him an Oscar nomination) comes towards the end of the picture, when he tries to explain DuPont's influence on him in front of a stationary camera. I couldn't find that clip online, but it's good to note how quiet and restrained Ruffalo exists for most of the picture. He's tragically sad, and it's a role that works well in the context of the film- if sometimes he's overshadowed by heavy makeup, rigid direction, and a screenplay so lackluster not even the creepiness can save the movie. Ruffalo is a great actor, nevertheless, and it's good to see him, like Knightley, nominated for a year that included the awesome Begin Again and the heartbreaking HBO movie The Normal Heart. I'll pretend like he was nominated for those instead.
Oscar History: He was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for The Kids Are All Right in 2010.
Oscar Chances: Low
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you your 2015 Best Supporting Actor winner! J.K. Simmons has dominated the awards race this season for his terrifying, brutal, and flawless performance as Terrence Fletcher in Whiplash. A character actor that has done everything from Law & Order to Spider-Man, Simmons is finally getting the awards recognition that has been coming for years now. And he hits Fletcher out of the park, giving arguably the best performance of the year, lead or supporting. He's a villain who's scarier and more threatening than the best comic book films had to offer, and it's hard to take your eyes off him. He also makes viewers question the price of greatness, and brings forth several theories about what success means in a world where trophies are handed out for trying. Haunting, menacing, and utterly magnificent, we're all excited to see Simmons win an Oscar on February 22nd.
Oscar History: This is his first nomination.
Oscar Chances: High
So, when it's all said and done, here's what the Best Actor in a Supporting Role Oscar race is looking like as of January 30th:
Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Could Win: Edward Norton, Birdman
Should Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
See you all next week for... Best Actress in a Leading Role!
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