But before we do, let's look at all eight nominees together:
And now, on to the show!
American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)
Clint Eastwood's examination of Chris Kyle is an intense, thrilling ride into the mind of the deadliest sniper in US history. With a fine performance by my current obsession Bradley Cooper, the film has become a shockingly massive box office smash, almost taking the spot of the highest grossing domestic film of 2014. It hits all the chords of a typical, gung ho military flick that the Academy tends to favor, but it also addresses the severe problem of PTSD among returning soldiers (interestingly enough, a documentary short up this year also deals with that issue, pertaining to a suicide hotline for veterans). American Sniper also represents a silent threat for Best Picture in so much that because of its growing popularity and late-season entrance into the awards game, it's easily the freshest on voters minds. This gives it a slight edge, though it'll be hard to see the movie pull a Million Dollar Baby and show up the competition. But who knows- the strong support for this film may pull through in the end (and who doesn't want to see Cooper win an Oscar for producing?). Oscar Chances: Medium
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Alejandro G. Innaritu)
A PGA. A DGA. A SAG. These aren't just random acronyms- these are all the guild awards, arguably the three most important ones, that Birdman has won in the past month. Though considered second after Boyhood a few weeks ago, Birdman now looks into the position to take Best Picture by storm. The film, much like it's close competition, is fairly experimental: designed to look like a single long take, the film bends reality and offers a dark comedy about the state of showbiz today. Not to mention the fact that it has a crazy good cast in it, filled with some of Hollywood's finest, led by the fearless Michael Keaton. It ties Grand Budapest for the most nominations, and though it certainly won't win them all, it may take the greatest prize of the evening. For with the exception of Braveheart's defeat of Apollo 13 in 1995, no film has ever won all three of these guild awards and not won Best Picture. I'd be ok with Birdman winning, because even though it's not my favorite of the possibilities, it's so different than any other film to win Best Picture. Oscar Chances: High
Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
The sentimental favorite of the evening just happens to be one of the best movies of this decade. Linklater's sprawling, intimate yet simple look into the life of a boy from age six to eighteen. By this point, you know the story: Linklater filmmed for a few weeks every year from 2002 to 2014, cumulating in a three-hour opus where you actually see these characters age. It's unlike anything ever attempted before, and something that likely won't happen again anytime soon. For this reason, it stands on the same shoulders of the sprawling Lawrence of Arabia and the epic Gone with the Wind in terms of representing breakthroughs in cinema. I love this little movie, and hopefully enough Academy voters agree that they do too; and, with preferential ballots (don't ask), most believe will likely love it enough to win Best Picture. A Best Picture Oscar would be the ultimate end to Boyhood's long road. Oscar Chances: High
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
Ah Wes. Poor ol' boy hasn't been nominated for Best Picture until this film, but man does he deserve it. Even a February release date hasn't slowed down this titanic picture from racking up many technical awards over the past few months, notably in the screenplay department. With a gorgeous production design, escapist caricatures of a fantasy period piece, and many great performances (including the shamefully overlooked Ralph Fiennes), Grand Budapest ticks off a lot of buttons that Academy members like. In addition, it shares the most nominations with Birdman (with nine a piece), so the love is clearly there. Finally, add Wes's lack of an Oscar win up to this point, and you may get a huge shove for the Grand Budapest. Though, they may feel all this and give him Best Original Screenplay, which would be great as well. Oscar Chances: Medium-High
The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
More so than any other nominee this year, The Imitation Game actually tries to be a prestige Best Picture contender in it's own creation. The film desperately reeks of Oscar attention, and the trick paid off- up for eight nominations, the Weinstein's favorite child right now won over the the voting body. It deals with some topical issues, but always keeps them restrained enough where they are not overly risky in their execution. With that in mind, Game is mostly an entertaining period piece with good performances and an amusing screenplay. But while the film appears to be an awards frontrunner in its look, it's hardly won any precursor awards, despite nominations at virtually every show. The adapted screenplay seems to have the film's best shot, because even with so many nominations and an obviously popular method, The Imitation Game hardly looks like a strong Best Picture contender. Oscar Chances: Low-Medium
Selma (Ava DuVernay)
The Best Picture contender with only two total nominations, this socially resonant film isn't winning Best Picture. While by no means a perfect film, it still is one of the best of 2014, and the fact that it made the list of the best of the year shows that the Academy really did like it. Slow dialogue scenes suddenly (and sometimes literally) explode into brutal massacres, all over the racial tension that divided America during the 1960's. Oprah gives a heartbreaking turn as a woman who just wants to vote, and this simple right that should be bestowed on all Americans is lost during this time period. Martin Luther King Jr.'s fight for that basic freedom deserves to be recognized, and a Best Picture nomination is a just celebration for the first motion picture to trace that legendary man's actions. I'm looking forward to seeing Common and John Legend celebrate the film by performing "Glory" at the Oscars this Sunday. Oscar Chances: Low
The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)
A case of the performances were better than the movie itself, The Theory of Everything snuck into this list because of two powerhouse performances. Eddie Redmayne physically transforms into the near-impossible-to-repliacte role of Stephen Hawking, while Felicity Jones gives a much more honed and emotional role the humanizing edge. We relate to her story more than his, and find her strength and courage in sticking with him to be hugely inspiring. Nevertheless, besides these two great acting jobs, the film itself is relatively one-key: ugly cinematography mixes with a bland screenplay and phoned-in music score to create your fairly average melodrama. Though the tale is inspiring, and the acting is great, Theory is the most curious of the Best Picture nominees. Oscar Chances: Low
Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
The poster says it all: this movie is "electrifying". This is an energetic, frantic, fast-paced thriller... about a jazz band. That simple idea is enough, when done as successfully as Whiplash, to warrant a Best Picture nomination then and there. Though it likely won't win, it's very nice to see my second favorite movie of the year gain last-minute momentum in this race. It's terrifying to behold, and the chemistry between Miles Teller and Oscar-frontrunner J.K. Simmons is nothing short of a miracle. The music is addicting, and reflects the state of mind of our lead character throughout the picture. It honors jazz bands and the cutthroat music industry in more ways than one, and I found the story to be very compelling as well. Whiplash is not going to win Best Picture, but this is definitely one I'll look back on in a few years and say, "I'm glad this made it in." It really was a privilege just for this movie to be nominated. Oscar Chances: Low
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