Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Though it's a movie I didn't particularly enjoy, how could the Academy not nominate Carell for his heavy-makeup, slow-moving psychopath that shows the dark side of the American Dream. The Academy also likes nominating comedic characters doing the rare drama (see: Jonah Hill, Robin Williams), and they seem to like Foxcatcher quite a bit. This is a very different part for Carell, who truly haunts as a cold man on the verge of rupturing. Next to Channing Tatum and Mark Rufallo, he has the showiest role, but he hardly does anything at all. He sits around brooding for most of the picture, and while there is glimmer of potential from him, he really doesn't seem to try and make John DuPont even slightly interesting as a character. But, like I said, Carell has dramatic chops- he just should've chosen a better vehicle to demonstrate them.
Oscar History: This is Carell's first nomination.
Oscar Chances: Low
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Bradley Cooper is one of my favorite actors working in cinema today. Since blowing me away in 2012 with Silver Linings Playbook (an Oscar nomination he should have ultimately won), he continued his hot streak with a 2013 nomination for American Hustle, and the Academy obviously couldn't ignore him for his intense portrayal of SEAL sniper Chris Kyle. Packing on tons of muscle and adding a southern drawl, Cooper gives a resonant and effective performance that had me cheering on Oscar Nominations morning. He continuously delivers startling work year after year, and American Sniper gives him the chance to tackle a different character than anything he has done. He demonstrates keen insight into PTSD, and amazes in the war scenes. Plastic babies aside, he also does a good job acting as a troubled father to a loyal family. The film has its faults, but no one can deny the lead actor's virtuosity as Chris Kyle. Cooper, you continue to amaze me, and I look forward to another Oscar-worthy performance in 2015.
Oscar History: This is Cooper's third nomination, after previous nods for Lead Actor in Silver Linings Playbook in 2012, and Supporting Actor in 2013 for American Hustle. He is also a producer for American Sniper, so he received a nomination for Best Picture for that as well.
Oscar Chances: Medium
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
No one seems to be as red-hot in the celebrity scene right now than Benedict Cumberbatch, so his nomination will guarantee viewership and also celebrate his performative abilities. Though the film is so driven for awards prestige it hinders on the point of absurdity, The Imitation Game is nevertheless a well-made biopic, one that's about the triumph of an anti-social cryptographer who singlehandedly won World War II. It's a story worth illuminating, and one that's ever-relevant in the progression of LGBT rights in the world; Alan Turing, Cumberbatch's character, is a gay man wrongly persecuted for his sexual preference, and therefore represents a symbolic hero for the entire community. I'm glad the character is nominated more so than the performance, though Cumberbatch nevertheless captures the spirit of Turing with finely-tuned comedic timing, emotional fragility, and an overall career-high job that makes his guaranteed nomination well worth it.
Oscar History: This is Cumberbatch's first nomination.
Oscar Chances: Low-Medium
Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
I have been watching Tim Burton's Batman since the day I was born. As such, I've had this ever-present love for Michael Keaton. So, imagine my surprise to discover that Keaton has actually been holding back all these years, saving his real dramatic power for the perfect role. And Keaton found one in Birdman- a tour de force performance that brings him to the threshold of meta commentary and deep imagination. Keaton is stunningly effective as Riggan Thompson, an actor struggling to make his career mean something by financing, directing, producing, and starring in an adaptation of a classic play. Bending the rules of reality by floating, controlling objects with his mind, and flying into the air, Keaton's performance feels like it's out of a dream, in both the startling performance he gives and the story sandbox in which he plays. I plead Academy voters to give Keaton his career Oscar- it's long overdue, he totally gives the best lead performance of the year, and it's a role which challenges and celebrates the life of an actor. As a bonus, how great is he at giving some emotional and touching speeches?
Oscar History: This is Keaton's first nomination.
Oscar Chances: Medium-High
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Ok, so as annoying as a quibble as this remains, I cannot stand Eddie Redmayne's voice; I feel like every line of dialogue he says is another attempt to replicate his singing voice from Les Miserables. That being said, Redmayne's physical transformation as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything is a marvel to behold, and his Oscar that's likely coming to him is more than acceptable. Redmayne's performance was also supposedly shot out of sequence, which makes it even more impressive considering the major changes the character makes as the film progresses. Redmayne also does much not to give a heroic view of Hawking, who was known for his sometimes questionable decision-making. This is a popular choice to win Best Actor, and while probably my personal third choice, it's a performance that's hard to ignore.
Oscar History: This is Redmayne's first nomination.
Oscar Chances: High
So, when it's all said and done, here's what the Lead Actor field is looking like as of February 13th:
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Could Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Should Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Come back next week for the grandaddy of all the awards... Best Picture! Thanks for your continual support.
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