2016 Oscar Ballot

It's time for another Academy Awards ceremony! Tonight, we'll see how months of campaigning and award shows have panned out for Oscar voters- will MAD MAX: FURY ROAD earn George Miller his much deserved Best Director win? Will SPOTLIGHT be as much of a factor as everyone anticipated it would be late last year? And, on seemingly everyone's minds, will this finally be Leo's year? We'll find out when the curtains open at the Dolby Theater, tonight at 8:30 ET. But for your ballots and Oscar education pleasure, here are my "Will/Could/Should" predictions! Click here to see the ballot I'm using to follow along.

Best Picture
Will Win: THE REVENANT
Could Win: SPOTLIGHT
Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

Commentary: Some are saying this is a three-way race between THE REVENANT, SPOTLIGHT, and THE BIG SHORT. All three won one of the top three guild prizes, with SPOTLIGHT taking the coveted SAG win, THE REVENANT taking the more indicative Oscar predictor DGA, and THE BIG SHORT shocked for a win at the PGA. There's also some speculation that MAD MAX: FURY ROAD will have enough passionate supporters to break through (as it should, MAD MAX will age significantly better than any of the other films nominated for Best Picture), but ultimately, THE REVENANT is going to win tonight, after winning the publicly important Golden Globes and the similar voting body at BAFTA.

Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, THE REVENANT
Could Win: Michael Fassbender, STEVE JOBS
Should Win: Matt Damon, THE MARTIAN
Commentary: One of the weakest line-ups in this category that I have ever seen, this will 100% be DiCaprio's year to win an Oscar. I've never been wowed by any of his performances, and THE REVENANT is certainly one of his worst performances. But against a quite terrible selection of Best Actor nominees (though Damon made my final cut for one of the five lead actors of the year), this will be a case of pleasing the Internet and their endless fascination with DiCaprio.

Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Brie Larson, ROOM
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan, BROOKLYN
Should Win: Cate Blanchett, CAROL
Commentary: Best Actor looks even more pitiful when compared to the powerhouse quintet that comprises the nominees for Best Actress this year. Larson, Ronan, Rampling, and especially Blanchett all deserve love on the stage (is it too much to ask for a four-way tie??), and Lawrence certainly was the highlight of the disappointing JOY. But the prognostics don't lie- after sweeping the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, the SAGs, and the Independent Spirit Awards, Larson will be the woman of the hour.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, CREED
Could Win: Mark Rylance, BRIDGE OF SPIES
Should Win: Sylvester Stallone, CREED
Commentary: Tom Hardy shocked on nominations morning with a surprise nomination (totally deserved, he's nearly perfect as the villain of REVENANT), but it was never not between Stallone and Rylance for this prize. Rylance (in addition to the snubbed Elba) has won where Stallone hasn't been eligible, but sentimentality will pave the way for a deserving win for Stallone, who gloriously returned as Rocky Balboa in CREED.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Alicia Vikander, THE DANISH GIRL
Could Win: Kate Winslet, STEVE JOBS
Should Win: Kate Winslet, STEVE JOBS

Commentary: This is arguably the closest of the pretty locked-up Oscar race, with Vikander in the lead solely because of her more important win at the SAG awards. But Winslet has netted a tiny sum from BAFTA and the Globes (both of which had Vikander campaigning in lead), and quite frankly deserves this Oscar. She gave one of my favorite performances this year, and I would love to see her recognized for it. However, my money is on Vikander for having one of the best film years since Jessica Chastain in 2011.

Animated Feature Film
Will Win: INSIDE OUT

Could Win: ANOMALISA
Should Win: INSIDE OUT
Commentary: There's not a dud in the bunch in this category, and I highly recommend checking out the hilariously punny SHAUN THE SHEEP and the emotional WHEN MARNIE WAS THERE. But, don't bet against INSIDE OUT, which hasn't lost a win in this category yet. It's Pixar's best since UP, and easily secured a spot in my Top 5 for the year, and totally deserves to win in this insanely great list of nominees.

Cinematography
Will Win: THE REVENANT
Could Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Should Win: SICARIO
Commentary: The loveliest surprise on Oscar morning was seeing how perfect the lineup for Best Cinematography is. THE REVENANT is going to win Emmanuel "Chivo" Lubeski his third Oscar in a row for delivering yet another series of gorgeous images, but I think AMPAS should spread the love and award MAD MAX: FURY ROAD or CAROL prizes (why can't there be more ties?!?) for their stunning camerawork. However, it's ultimately the striking visual pleasure of SICARIO that earns my vote, both because Roger Deakins has never won an Oscar (!), and because SICARIO wasn't as big of a deal as it should've been in the Oscar race.

Costume Design
Will Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Could Win: CAROL
Should Win: CAROL
Commentary: This one is kind of hard to predict, it could be MAD MAX, CAROL, or even CINDERELLA. I'm betting MAD MAX is by and large going to sweep the technicals, but they could award CAROL here since they won't anywhere else (unfortunately).

Directing
Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu, THE REVENANT
Could Win: George Miller, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Should Win: George Miller, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Commentary: No director in the history of the Academy Awards has ever won back-to-back Oscars for Directing and also won back-to-back Best Picture. History will more than likely be broken tonight, as THE REVENANT is heavily expected to win both of these categories. I think George Miller could rally and pull an upset, especially if there's a lot of love for MAD MAX, though I find that unlikely considering how much love they put behind REVENANT.

Documentary (Feature)
Will Win: AMY
Could Win: THE LOOK OF SILENCE
Should Win: AMY
Commentary: The Academy overlooked LOOK OF SILENCE's predecessor THE ACT OF KILLING in 2013, and despite the continued rapturous response for the sequel, AMY is going to take the award for this category. It's a heartbreaking look at one of recent entertainment's most tragic figures, and made a killing at the box office to boot. Plus, it's won every precursor known to man.

Documentary (Short Subject)
Will Win: BODY TEAM 12
Could Win: CHAU, BEYOND THE LINES
Should Win: BODY TEAM 12
Commentary: BODY TEAM 12 is the most contemporarily relevant, and often surprising, film of the bunch. Predicting the shorts is a crab shoot, but this one has most precursors behind it.

Film Editing
Will Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Could Win: SPOTLIGHT
Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Commentary: SPOTLIGHT will need to win this award in order to win Best Picture, but most predictions have the Academy going for MAD MAX. It certainly does achieve the goal of making a ton of raw footage and crazy imagery stick together in one, freaking awesome whole.

Foreign Language Film
Will Win: SON OF SAUL
Could Win: MUSTANG
Should Win: SON OF SAUL
Commentary: I actually really like both of the frontrunners, but SON OF SAUL is a gripping and often terrifying first-person look into the Holocaust. Some are saying MUSTANG could pull an upset, but don't risk losing an easy point on your ballot and predict SON OF SAUL.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Could Win: THE REVENANT
Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Commentary: THE REVENANT has some pretty gnarly cuts and gashes, and the men do have caveman beards. But.. MAD MAX has War Boys, Immortan Joe, and Imperator Furiosa. You do the math.

Music (Original Score)
Will Win: THE HATEFUL EIGHT
Could Win: STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS
Should Win: CAROL
Commentary: Another pretty easy prediction, as Ennio Morricone has never won an Oscar despite behind a legend in the film industry's music scene. Despite some controversy surrounding the film itself, most people will want to award Morricone for his important career. (Also, I don't like to do the "should've been here" complaining, but why was Junkie XL's MAD MAX score never in the conversation for this category????? He announced himself loud and clear this year, between MAD MAX, BLACK MASS, and RUN ALL NIGHT. This should've been an easy nomination for the musician.)

Music (Original Song)
Will Win: "Writing's on the Wall", SPECTRE
Could Win: "'Til It Happens To You", THE HUNTING GROUND
Should Win: "Writing's on the Wall", SPECTRE
Commentary: Sam Smith's Bond theme grows on me with each new listen, and he's leading a close race between him, Lady Gaga for THE HUNTING GROUND, and The Weeknd for FIFTY SHADES OF GREY. I like all three songs well enough, but ultimately I can't say no to giving the under-nominated Bond themes some extra love.

Production Design 
Will Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Could Win: THE MARTIAN
Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Commentary: For some reason, I can vaguely see them giving THE MARTIAN an award here? It's certainly not going to be the ugly DANISH GIRL art direction, nor will it be BRIDGE OF SPIES (which certainly has the "most" production design, with fully furnished sets). THE REVENANT winning wouldn't surprise me, especially if they go all the way with their love for the picture. Ultimately, however, the insane design of MAD MAX will take the cake.

Short Film (Animated)
Will Win: WORLD OF TOMORROW
Could Win: SANJAY'S SUPER TEAM
Should Win: SANJAY'S SUPER TEAM
Commentary: Never count out a Netflix availability in any category, and in particular something as hard-to-find as the short films. WORLD OF TOMORROW is actually quite rewarding to watch, though I can't say no to showing some extra love to the team at Pixar with SANJAY'S SUPER TEAM.

Short Film (Live Action)
Will Win: SHOK
Could Win: AVE MARIA
Should Win: SHOK
Commentary: All five of these short films are worth checking out, I enjoyed watching them all yesterday. SHOK certainly has the gut-punch factor that's important for the short films, and has stuck with me longer than the rest. EVERYTHING WILL BE OK is the best made of the bunch, though it's far too long to make the impact it wants to achieve. AVE MARIA is perfectly fine as well, with some culturally resonant comedy.

Sound Editing/Sound Mixing
Will Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD/MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Could Win: STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS/THE REVENANT
Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD/MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Commentary: To explain the difference between these two categories, sound editing involves creating entirely new sounds, while sound mixing involves balancing all the sounds in a particular scene. However, by and large, they both end up going for the same movie. And this year, the rollicking soundtrack to MAD MAX is easily the best of the bunch.

Visual Effects
Will Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Could Win: STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS
Should Win: EX MACHINA
Commentary: Props to AMPAS for actually nominating some non-flashy effects work this year, like THE REVENANT and EX MACHINA, instead of the typical superhero parade. I can vaguely see them awarding STAR WARS somewhere, either in the sound or effects technicals. Sometimes they like to spread the wealth in terms of movies awarded, but this year I think it's going to be a MAD MAX takeover in all the smaller, but no less important, categories. I'd go for MAD MAX, though all five are definitely possibilities.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Will Win: THE BIG SHORT
Could Win: ROOM
Should Win: CAROL
Commentary: Lots of great little nominee fun-facts in this category, but I'm almost positive they're going to give THE BIG SHORT it's due here. ROOM has an outside shot (hey, Lenny Abrahamson made the cut for Best Director despite no predictions in that regard), though I would love to see Phyliss Nagy's screenplay get some love here. Or THE MARTIAN! Such an awesome example of a screenplay for an action movie carrying the weight in terms of highly quotable dialogue, unexpected character developments, and creative sequences.

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Will Win: SPOTLIGHT
Could Win: INSIDE OUT
Should Win: INSIDE OUT
Commentary: This is slowly and surely becoming my favorite category at the Oscars, though the Academy is unfortunately going for my least favorite in the bunch. INSIDE OUT is a marvel in written imagination, BRIDGE OF SPIES keeps the pace going with well-rounded characters, EX MACHINA presents a barrage of layers with only three characters, and STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON is a biopic that remains fresh and relevant throughout the long runtime. SPOTLIGHT, in my opinion, had very little conflict (there was no sense that the story would never get published), one-dimensional characters based on exceptional real life people, and a silly collection of tangents that never get resolved (Liev Schriber laying people off never comes into play after the first twenty minutes, the 9/11 subplot feels forced in and not neccesary, etc.). I'm in the 1% minority of people that doesn't like SPOTLIGHT, but it's winning at least one Oscar here.

Well, there you have it! Enjoy the ceremony tonight, starting with the red carpet at 7:00 on ABC.