Oscar Countdown 2014: Best Picture

We officially have only ONE WEEK to go! The 84th Academy Awards are next Sunday, and the race couldn't be more exciting. The greatest actors of our generation are vying for their own gold, but the movies they star in are also in hot contention. With no less than three movies having a reasonable chance of winning, this is by far the best horse race in the past decade. This is the year of survival in film, and each character fights for control of their own lives in some unique way. For the first time ever, I have been able to see all nine of the movies up for Oscar's top prize, and they all deserve the award. But, since there must be a winner, we're analyzing each film's chances of success. Today, we're looking at the nine movies competing for the Best Motion Picture of 2013.

12 Years a Slave

Ever since the early predictions started, 12 Years a Slave has been on the top of everyone's lists. However, interestingly enough, 12 Years isn't supposed to win a large chunk of the awards. That being said, it has nearly swept the prizes where Best Picture was a category, including tying for the Producers Guild Award, and recently won the BAFTA. And it's not hard to imagine why- the movie is a brutal depiction of the cruelty of slavery, more relevant now than ever. Steve McQueen, through only three films, has showed the harshness of life, and none have been as epic as 12 Years. This movie is one of the top three choices for Oscar voters, and the only things that stand in its way are called American Hustle and Gravity. That being said, while the other two movies have faults of their own, 12 Years a Slave is arguably the best all-around picture, with solid acting, writing, cinematography, sound, music, and direction. It represents exactly what Best Picture aims to honor.
OSCAR CHANCES: HIGH


American Hustle

With "10538 Overture" and other '70's anthems blaring in the background, American Hustle is an addicting drama, with the Screen Actor Guild's choice for the Best Cast of the year. It's characters are fascinating, it's story is intriguing, and David O. Russell has proven himself to be one of the most resilient and talented writer-directors of the decade. While it's 1970's backdrop may not seem too relevant, American Hustle benefits from the perfect cast with the perfect director at the right time. Almost all of them Russell regulars, and it's clear their chemistry is solid throughout this engaging crime saga. With 10 nominations to its name, Hustle ties Gravity for having the most nominations of the night. It was even once declared the Oscar frontrunner; however, recently, the film seems to be losing steam, and has not made a huge impact on guild awards lately. However, one should not underestimate how much the Academy loved this movie when it first came out, and how Russell has done the impossible and been up for the Big Five two years in a ROW. American Hustle is probably his best film yet, and it's the safe choice for Academy voters who can't decide between Gravity or 12 Years a Slave. It's a popular movie that could end up going all the way, and no one will complain if it does.
OSCAR CHANCES: HIGH


Captain Phillips

Captain Phillips has been shamefully neglected by the Academy. For being one of the finest films of the year (my #5 pick), it failed to receive a nomination for Best Actor or Best Director, and is not expected to win virtually anything (except for a possible Editing victory). The Guild awards have honored the film on several occasions, honoring it's breathtaking editing and Barkhad Abdi's first-ever film role. But the Academy does not seem very keen on picking the movie in its six nominations, and it's Best Picture victory is the longest shot of them all. In any case, you should still check out this solid action thriller; it's fresh from CNN, and has a comeback role for Hank's seemingly stalling career. It's a shame the Academy could not recognize it more.
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW



Dallas Buyers Club

As far as acting prizes go, Dallas Buyers Club is likely to claim half, with Mathew McConaughey and Jared Leto looking like virtual locks for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor, respectively. However, much beyond that, the Dallas Buyers won't be winning much else. Their Best Picture odds are not very strong, with only a handful of other nominations (some of which they'll win; more on Best Makeup next week). They can sleep well knowing they have at least three prizes in the bag, and will go down in Oscar history as being one of the few movies to claim both male acting awards. Just don't expect it to make much a Best Picture showing.
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW







Gravity

Dear Members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences,

I, like a handful of many devoted Oscar fans, were very excited to see that Gravity was tied for the most nominations of the evening, including Best Picture. As far as movies of 2013 go, none were as breathtaking or visually spectacular as Gravity. It represents definitive proof as to why people need to go the movies to fully experience a motion picture, and will go down in history as easily the most influential film of the year. In addition, I have been happy to see that many Oscar pundits are predicting Gravity to sweep many of the technical awards. It deserves this recognition, and, as far as I know, is a virtual lock for Best Cinematography, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing, Best Original Score, and even Best Director for the landmark visionary Alfonso Cuaron. My question is this: why are so many saying that, even with all these achievements pretty much guaranteed, 12 Years a Slave is going to win Best Picture? It's not that it's a bad movie- it's an amazing work of art that deserves much praise. But it could have been made a decade ago, to the same effect. Gravity could only have been crafted at this time, and will have an astounding legacy on the history of cinema. It's the kind of movie event that only comes around once in a while, and so it demands to be honored whenever it can. This is YOUR chance to vote for a movie that means something, a film that has made a positive contribution to your industry, which will continue to feel its effects for years to come. Don't take the safe route this year- vote for the film that has everybody talking (and has the highest box office profits of all the nominees, to boot), and go with your gut. Cuaron's masterpiece needs to win Best Picture because it is the best movie of the year, for movie lovers in and out of the industry. Don't regret your vote five years from now; seize the opportunity to vote today. Vote Gravity for Best Picture.
OSCAR CHANCES: HIGH

Her

Spike Jonze is up for three Academy Awards this year- for Best Original Screenplay, Best Original Song, and Best Picture- all for his modern romantic fable Her. The film remains an innovative look at the state of love in the world, where a lonely man can fall for his computer easily and realistically. Jonze will probably win for Best Original Screenplay, because the story is fascinating and so intricately written. It's production design also deserves to be recognized, and Scarlett Johansson should have been up for Best Supporting Actress as the voice of Samantha, the Siri-like computer of Joaquin Phoenix. Many critics adored this movie, and romance enthusiasts should certainly check it out. That being said, the film only has a moderate chance of winning, and it's inspired screenplay will likely yield it's only prize.
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW


Nebraska

For old souls and Alexander Payne fans, Nebraska is a beloved treasure: a gorgeous black-and-white drama about tribulations of getting old. It's beautiful cinematography, as well as a story that makes viewers smile, shows the talents of this acclaimed filmmaker. Nevertheless, Nebraska will likely come out a goose egg come Oscar Sunday. It stands an outside chance because Payne is up for Best Director, and a lot of the Academy consists of elderly people that likely find this movie a welcome return to form. I personally enjoyed the movie, but thought it was easily the weakest of the nominees. With Dern and Squibb's last hope being to earn a career Oscar, Nebraska is the definition of the dark horse.
OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM



Philomena

Speaking of weak nominees, there was a lot of raised eyebrows over this sweet little British dramedy. Judi Dench is an Academy starlet, and Steve Coogan's screenplay deserves to be recognized. But the film itself is a pretty average movie, and while it's cute and entertaining, there's nothing really making Philomena a Best Picture standout. It's biggest backer, however: Harvey Weinstein. He literally made the Oscar campaigns what they are today, but this is his only movie up for Best Picture. He's won so many times in recent years that it's hard to see another executive producer taking the prize; however, Philomena is currently resting comfortably in ninth place. There will be a ton of raised eyebrows if Philomena wins Best Picture.
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW




The Wolf of Wall Street

Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio are trying their very best to get the word of mouth out on The Wolf of Wall Street. It's an incredibly raunchy film, making even the most emotionless person cringe. The movie is absolutely crazy, and I was not expecting the typically conservative Academy to recognize this wild party. However, it ended up with five shocking nominations, for Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Director, and Best Picture. The scary part? It's got probably the greatest chance of winning if 12 Years, Hustle, and Gravity manage to cancel themselves out. This is a highly popular movie gaining more and more momentum every day. The Wolf of Wall Street is also a parable about financial excess, and an attack on the corrupt financial figures throughout the world. Could this be the first movie to win DiCaprio an Oscar?
OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM

Here they are: the nine films representing the best that 2013 has to offer. In the end, it'll come down to 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, or Gravity (with The Wolf of Wall Street representing the only real outside possibility, unless Weinstein manages to make Philomena more of a thing than it deserves). If the trend continues, it appears that 12 Years a Slave is destined for Oscar gold. I'm pleading for American Hustle, and even more so Gravity, but it'll be a tight race until the very end. In a week, it will all be decided: will it be the monumental achievement in filmmaking, the greatest cast of the year, or the social issue movie? Oscar voters, it's in your court now.

Bottom line, here are my predictions as of February 23rd, 2014:

WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave
COULD WIN: Gravity or American Hustle
SHOULD WIN: Gravity

Come back next week as we break down all 24 categories!!! In the meantime, check out an Oscar-nominated movie at your local theater!

Oscar Countdown 2014: Best Actor in a Leading Role

This year probably has the best group of acting nominees in recent memory. Any one of the 20 men and women could win, and very little would complain if they do (only in that some are more deserving than others). Because of this, we're doing a special four-week event, in which we break down each of the acting categories and their respective nominees. This week involves a clear frontrunner, but three upsets could threaten the category's predictions. It was a great year for male actors, as there was no less than ten possible choices for the nominations; the five that made it are among cinema's finest character actors. Today, we're looking at the possibilities for Best Actor in a Leading Role.

Here are the nominees:


Christian Bale, American Hustle

Like we discussed before, this was a tough category to break into. No one expected this previous Oscar winner to make the cut, and he upset once-percieved frontrunners Tom Hanks and Robert Redford. But maybe this was for a good reason- the Academy loved American Hustle, and Bale's performance has been shamefully underrated. As Irving Rosenfeld, Bale is the emotional core of the film- it's somewhat ironical that the lifelong con artist is the most stable character in American Hustle. He understands exactly what his life is, and does the best he can to protect the ones he loves. Irving Rosenfeld is the nice-guy character we're not using to seeing Bale play, and his weight-gain and creepy hairpiece all make up the brilliance of his character. It's a performance filled with nuances and just good-old-fashioned solid acting we're used to seeing from the only recipient of an Academy Award on this list.
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW


Bruce Dern, Nebraska

One of the most recognizable character actors in the industry today, Bruce Dern is finally gaining some late-career recognition for his work as a neglectful father just trying to live a little before he passes away. He was actually nominated for a Best Supporting Actor Oscar in 1978 for the film Coming Home, but this is his first real chance to take home gold. The Academy loves rewarding late-career seniors, and in a less competitive year, Dern would have a chance. He certainly deserves the praise he has received, as his role is both tragic, hilarious, and heartwarming all at once. Dern plays the grizzled old midwest retiree with loving devotion, and we find ourselves smiling right along with him up until the very last shot.
OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM


Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

One of the most popular performers in cinema today, Leonardo DiCaprio was somewhat of a surprise to see Oscar Nominations morning. Looking back on it, I'm not really sure why; it's a heck of a role, requiring much from it's leading actor. DiCaprio is in someways the obvious choice, but at the same time he takes such enormous risks on this pet project that it's a wonder the conservative Academy liked this movie so much. A rat under the guise of a wolf, Jordon Belfort is a terrible, terrible, terrible human being we love to hate. His nearly endless barrage of sex, drugs, violence, and stealing make him the most despicable character of 2013- but it's so much fun to watch, this never really registers. This is quite possibly DiCaprio's best acting to date- he goes beyond his normal typecasts in the effort to make us sympathize with a monster. We may not understand the financial logistics of what Belfort did, but thanks to Leonardo DiCaprio, we know he's one hell of a character.
OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM-HIGH


Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Many people are singing Chiwetel Ejiofor's praise as the best performance of the year- and we can't really argue too much. Ejiofor, a character actor we've seen a ton (most notably in 2012) but never really known his name, has finally become the household name he needs to be. So much of 12 Years a Slave rests on the laurels of its leading Solomon Northup, and Ejiofor brings forth all the intensity and tragedy of a free man wrongly accused. His performance is rich with so many powerful scenes, requiring the actor to endure gruelingly long shots in a troubled character state. He was subjected to so much torture, so much hardship- and virtually for no reason at all. It's a metaphor for the entire slave drama- an African American citizen just trying to make a living beyond the heavy racism that surrounds him, only to be thrust into the humiliation that threatens his people. Ejiofor certainly would be a lot of people's first choice as the most important role of 2013.
OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM


Mathew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Out of all the character actors up for their Best Leading performance, none hold a candle to the chances of Mathew McConaughey. In a great year for acting important roles, he plays a homophobic Texas rancher who is diagnosed with AIDs- and ends up changing his ways to try and save his city from the corrupt medical practitioners and give people the medicine they need to survive. What's most impressive for the performer is his dramatic weight loss for the role- the usually fit McConaughey sheds massive pounds in order to truly play the real-life AIDs victim Ron Woodruff. He gives such raw emotional energy to the performance that's its nearly impossible to see anyone else upsetting him. He makes us feel for his character in so many ways, and it's life-affirming to see how one once terrible person can become a national hero. It's a role that reminds us why McConaughey got into acting in the first place.
OSCAR CHANCES: HIGH

Well, here are the five that made it. These are the actors that the Academy felt deserved the highest acting honor- the acting equivalent of a championship prize. McConaughey has won a SAG and Golden Globe for his dramatic comeback work, and he's liking to win the triple crown with a first-time Oscar win. However, if the Academy doesn't select him, than it's a wide open field that's arguably harder to call than the Best Picture race (though don't expect anyone but McConaughey to win). DiCaprio is WAY overdue for an Oscar victory, and he's currently sitting in second place with a Golden Globe-Comedy win; Ejiofor and Dern also pose a sizable threat in their own rights. Unfortunately, Bale is going home empty-handed. But honestly, all of these roles deserve the recognition of an Academy Award- it's a shame there can't be a five-way tie.

WILL WIN: Mathew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
COULD WIN: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street 
SHOULD WIN: Christian Bale, American Hustle

Well, there's all the acting nominees! Be sure to check out the previous category analyses. Until then, don't worry, because we'll keep you busy with plenty of Oscar coverages. Next week, we're looking at the most disputed Best Picture race in over a decade- and one of the most exciting ones, to boot. See you then!

Oscar Countdown 2014: Best Actress in a Leading Role

This year probably has the best group of acting nominees in recent memory. Any one of the 20 men and women could win, and very little would complain if they do (only in that some are more deserving than others). Because of this, we're doing a special four-week event, in which we break down each of the acting categories and their respective nominees. This week, the competition is between five of the greatest living actresses today, who each gave shameless devotion to their emotional roles. Today, we're looking at the lineup for Best Actress in a Leading Role.

Here are the nominees:

Amy Adams, American Hustle

An actress unfortunately jipped from her four previous nominations because of stiff competitors, Amy Adams continues to shine a series of film roles that push her boundaries as a performer. In American Hustle, she plays a con artist who just wants to escape her troubled past and be someone different. Adams plays someone uncomfortable with her own sexuality, using it as both a buffer, a tool, and a means to survive; the audience doesn't even know who's side she's really ever on. Will she always love and protect Irving, is she motivated by selfish desires, or has she finally found an FBI agent who understands her? It's a fascinating, complex role that Amy Adams thrives in.
OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Ever since Blue Jasmine premiered last August, Cate Blanchett has been a near-lock for a nomination. However, over the past few months, she's won almost every critic's prize and acting award possible, so her chances of Oscar gold seem almost certain. It's not that she's not worthy; Blanchett's Jasmine is the modern-day Blanche DuBois, a selfish divorcee reliant on money who's lost everything. Along the way, she abuses everyone who still likes her, refusing to change her horrific ways. Blanchett embodies the character beautifully, making the so-so film worth seeing solely because of her. Her only detraction, coincidentally, is her director; Woody Allen has had some bad press recently due to the reemergence of an old conflict with Mia Farrow. The Academy could be torn about this, but it's unlikely the actress will suffer for it. Blanchett won a Supporting Actress award in 2004 for The Aviator, and she's likely to add another Oscar to her repertoire next month.
OSCAR CHANCES: VERY HIGH

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Armed with only her wits and raw emotional intensity, Gravity is essentially a one-woman show, pitting Sandra Bullock's Dr. Ryan Stone against both the enormousness of space and her own inner demons. Bullock received some flack for winning in 2009 for The Blind Side, but in all honesty that year was weak for leading women. The usually comedic actress gives arguably her best performance ever in Alfonso Cuaron's spectacular space epic. As the film is reliant on it's singular protagonist, Bullock fits perfectly in the vision of the motion picture event. She spent long days in zero-gravity environments, and had to spend hours at a time by herself. In the grand scheme of things, it's good that she did, because her acting ability shone in full force on the silver screen. She may have been alone in outer space, but Dr. Ryan Stone has become one the most beloved characters of the year.
OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM

Judi Dench, Philomena

Despite a Best Picture and Best Screenplay nomination, Philomena's best chance at an Oscar is through Oscar-winner Dame Judi Dench. One of the perennial queens of the dramatic arts, Dench is a beloved actress no matter what she does. And Philomena gives her the opportunity to demonstrate her maternal instincts and introduce her talented craft to a role catered to her abilities. Philomena Lee is a tough Irish Catholic woman who's spent the past half decade harboring a terrible secret: she once had a son as a teenager, and now in her old age is determined to find him. Armed with only her passion and fierce devotion to her religion, Philomena goes to America in the effort to solve the greatest mystery of her life. Dench embodies the respectful old age, playing it with hilarious anecdotes and sad memories. It's an entertaining role in a fittingly entertaining film.
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

An interesting thing about these actresses is that they're all Oscar favorites, either multiple winners or nominees. But none of them hold a candle to Meryl Streep, a nearly traditional Academy pick that seemingly has to walk through a closet to get nominated. The funny thing is that she's good enough to be nominated for everything she does. August: Osage County is an ensemble of phenomenal actors overacting, but Streep gives her typical grandiose performance as the family matriarch. Streep just won for The Iron Lady, and it's unlikely that she'll take home an Academy Award this year. However, it would be really cool to see her tie Katherine Hepburn for the most acting Oscars ever.
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW

The Academy Award for Best Actress in a Leading Role will go to Cate Blanchett, with little room for an upset. Dench and Streep should never be counted out, but this is likely Blanchett's year to shine; there's a little bit of room for a consolation prize for the other nominees though, because their movies have much better chances to win than Blue Jasmine. Upsets include Amy Adams and Sandra Bullock, who took home minor acting prizes in the preliminaries, and who's films are riding major waves right now. They could win as a result of the popularity of their movies, but Blanchett is so much of a guarantee that it's almost stupid betting against her.

Bottom line, here are my predictions for Best Actress as of February 7th, 2013:

WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
COULD WIN: Amy Adams, American Hustle
SHOULD WIN: Sandra Bullock, Gravity

See you guys next week for the final acting examination- the heavily contested Best Actor in a Leading Role!!

Oscar Countdown 2014: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

This year probably has the best group of acting nominees in recent memory. Any one of the 20 men and women could win, and very little would complain if they do (only in that some are more deserving than others). Because of this, we're doing a special four-week event, in which we break down each of the acting categories and their respective nominees. This week, we're diving into a category rich with heartbreak, shown through a group of women able to stand in the spotlight among such worthy competition. Today, we're looking at the category Best Actress in a Supporting Role.

Here are the nominees:


Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Perhaps the most worthy achievement of Sally Hawkin's performance in Blue Jasmine is her uncanny ability to hold her own against Cate Blanchett's all-in performance. Hawkins plays Ginger, who just wants a regular life with her obnoxious but devoted boyfriend, but cannot seem to get a break from her emotional sister. Hawkins rightfully earns her first Oscar nomination here, because she makes the audience feel completely sorry for her, and just acts so... normal. There's no acting going on here; it's all so believable, and for that, Hawkins deserves a place among these stars.
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW


Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

The Academy rarely gives consecutive Oscars for actors (with Tom Hanks being the notable exception, after his Best Actor two-punch in '93 and '94), but Jennifer Lawrence's brassy performance in American Hustle is just too awesome to ignore. Her Rosalyn is the out-of-control wife of Christian Bale's Irving, and Lawrence gives a dynamite performance that is arguably one of the year's best. In a relatively short screen time, the unbelievably talented actress steals the show- not an easy feat considering the high caliber nature of the movie's ensemble. Whether it's head-banging "Live and Let Die" while cleaning, cooking aluminum in a microwave, or having an electric encounter with co-star Amy Adams in the bathroom, there are multiple scenes which could earn Lawrence another Oscar. And being America's Girl on Fire, it's doubtful anyone would really care if she wins twice in a row.
OSCAR CHANCES: HIGH


Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave

12 Years a Slave is a far-from-humble historical epic that depicts the brutal atrocities committed in the slavery-bound south. Lupita Nyong'o is the exact opposite- a modest yet amazingly talented actress straight out of Yale. In her first-ever film role, Nyong'o's Patsey becomes the symbol of oppression, a devastatingly abused field slave who becomes the object of her master's obsessions and desires. There's no escape for her, and she holds the weight of an entire race on her heavily-scarred back. It's a role that the Academy loves to award, a12 Years a Slave, she's the most likely to take home the prize.
nd of all the actors up for
OSCAR CHANCES: HIGH


Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

August: Osage County remains the definition of over-acting in a motion picture. That being said, there are quite a few exceptional performances in the film- and Julia Roberts gives perhaps the most impressive. In her first Oscar nomination since Erin Brockovich, Roberts makes a glorious comeback nearly a decade after captivating audiences in the 1990's. It's shocking there is not more publicity surrounding this (probably because there were so many great comebacks this year), but an Oscar nomination is a pretty nice consolation prize.
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW

June Squibb, Nebraska

A crabby old lady who's experienced a lot of suffering over the years, Kate, as portrayed by June Squibb, is nonetheless arguably the most interesting character in Alexander Payne's midwestern opus Nebraska. June Squibb gives a soulful, hysterical performance as the wife of the lead character and the mother to Will Forte's David. Squibb reflects a multitude of grandmother archetypes, and in combination with the sharp screenplay, she comes across as being very realistic. And while she may seem harsh to her lover, in the end, we know that she will do anything for her family. Squibb's first time nomination could yield the actress a well-deserved career Oscar, as a loving tribute to the actress that has done so much over the years.
OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM


There seems to be two competitors locked in combat over first place: Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong'o. They've split the awards circuit, with Lawrence claiming most of the critic's group and the Golden Globe, yet Nyong'o took home the important SAG prize. Because of Lawrence's win last year, in combination with the type of role the Academy loves to honor, Nyong'o appears to be in the lead. With no more indicators before the big night, audiences will be captivated to see who ultimately ends up on top. An upset is highly unlikely, since these two seem pretty solid; however, because of the late-career nomination and age of the Academy voters, June Squibb could have a shot in the dark chance. However, don't expect this to happen, because it's going to be the straight-out-of--school newcomer vs. America's sweetheart.

Bottom line, here are my predictions as of January 31st, 2013:

WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
COULD WIN: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
SHOULD WIN: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle