Hello all, and welcome to the beginning of Oscars 2015!!!! The coverage of all things relating to the 87th Academy Awards begins today, with what I believe will be nominated tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST. For today, I'll just be predicting the Big Five (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Screenplays), as well as the Supporting acting categories. But don't worry, once the nominations come out tomorrow morning, I'll be giving my two cents on most (if not all hopefully) of the 24 categories before Oscar Sunday on February 22nd. Come back tomorrow morning to see how many I got right!!
Let's get started with the biggie:
Best Picture
This has been a typically tight race, with two films emerging as the perceived frontrunners: Boyhood and Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance). Right there behind them are British biopics The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything, as well as Wes Anderson's zany The Grand Budapest Hotel. Those five each gained major awards recognition (in terms of each branch's equivalent of "Best Picture") from the Screen Actor's Guild Awards (SAG) and the Producer's Guild Awards (PGA), with only Theory missing the Director's Guild Awards (DGA) cut. All five are getting in.
Thanks to the Academy's wonky rules for the number of Best Picture nominees (click here for a good explanation of them), there can be anywhere between 5-10 Best Picture nominees. The past few years, since the new rules kicked in, there has been 9 nominees. So, for the sake of argument, let's go ahead and assume there's going to be that amount of nominees this year. If my math checks out, we've got four slots to work with.
Ok, so let's assume Selma is going to be nominated. It missed virtually every guild award, likely because screeners did not arrive in time for the deadline; however, the film is still proving to be a powerhouse, albeit a faded one, and it's not likely it'll miss the Best Picture cut. Let's also go ahead and figure Nightcrawler, which is weirdly proving to be an awards darling with critics and guild members everywhere, is also getting a nod. The DGA, PGA, and Writer's Guild Awards (WGA) also adore American Sniper, so that may actually have a decent shot. It also had a lot of love at the box office right during the voting sessions, so it's highly likely that voters had that movie on their minds during the process. That leaves one spot left...
...which is where things get interesting. Could it be Gone Girl? Guilds like it enough, but it's not adored to the same level as the other frontrunners, and Fincher's snub at the DGAs is shocking considering their usual love for him. Could it be Foxcatcher? At this point, it looks unlikely, considering the cold reception it's getting as of late. The actors have a chance, and the DGA and WGA nominated it, but the controversy surrounding it's inaccuracies (spurred on by the film's subject Mark Schultz) could harm it. Could it be Into the Woods or Unbroken? Neither movie has done well at awards so far, so there's no reason to see them steal a slot for Best Picture.
But I personally think (and hope) it could be Whiplash. People love this movie, and it snuck into the PGA and WGA nominations, and the fact that J.K. Simmons will be nominated (and most likely win) means voters could realize how great the film was. Just for funnies, let's go with that one as my ninth slot.
(Nominees presented in order of likeliness to be nominated)
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Imitation Game
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Theory of Everything
6. Selma
7. Nightcrawler
8. American Sniper
9. Whiplash
Ok, because everyone votes for Best Picture, choosing those nominees is a bit trickier. But, here's where only the specific people in that branch get to choose the nominees, so predicting who they are going to pick is largely similar to their guild picks. But, this being the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, there's bound to be a shocker or two every once and a while.
Best Director
Let's start with the Director. Will this be the year when we return to the good old tradition of giving Best Director and Best Picture to the same film? It looks likely at this point, with Richard Linklater looking unbeatable for Boyhood. Right there on his trail, though, is Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman, and Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel. According to the DGA nominations, it'll be Martin Tyldum for Imitation Game and Clint Eastwood for American Sniper as well.
BUT WAIT! What about Ava DuVernay, who's destined to become the first African-American woman ever nominated for Best Director? Who will she upset? My hope is that she'll take Tyldum's spot, because his direction is sort of ho-hum compared to the rest of them. My money, however, is on Eastwood; he's a random pick from the DGA, so I think he's fairly vulnerable. David Fincher's work on Gone Girl was great, but he missed the DGA cut, so he's more of a long-shot than a possibility at this point.
Then again, the Best Director category is notoriously weird when the nominations come out, which means Damien Chazelle could see his Whiplash work get recognized. If Whiplash is as adored as I think it is, I think he'll actually take Tyldum's spot on the final nominations. Sadly, he may also replace DuVernay. (It should be said that while I want DuVernay to be nominated for progressive reasons, I think Chazelle's work is much better in their respective films, and I would rather see him nominated than her).
1. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
3. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Ava DuVernay, Selma
5. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Here we go. The dooziest of all the categories, and likely the one that's going to have the most gasps tomorrow morning. That's because there's so many potential nominees (and heck, even winners) that could fill the slots. Let's play it safe for right now, and largely work with the SAG predictions: Michael Keaton (Birdman), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), and Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler).
Keaton and Redmayne are safe, that much at least is a given. Gyllenhaal's Nightcrawler has gotten a lot of strong support lately, and if it's got anything close to a guarantee, this is it. But Carell and Cumberbatch are not so safe to call right now, mainly for the reason of David Oyelowo (Selma). He's getting in here somewhere... but where?
The most likely scenario is, to alleviate some of the tension, the Academy voters will move Carell into Best Supporting Actor's last open slot (see below). This allows Oyelowo to take Carell's place. Cumberbatch isn't a very exciting nominee, but because of how hot he is right now in the entertainment industry, it's hard to imagine a situation in which he's not nominated.
Potential spoilers include, but are not limited to, Bradley Cooper (of the red-hot American Sniper), Ralph Fiennes (of the dark horse favorite The Grand Budapest Hotel), and Timothy Spall (of the critic's favorite Mr. Turner).
1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
3. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
4. David Oyelowo, Selma
5. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Best Actress in a Leading Role
One of the two really easy-to-predict and relatively boring categories this year is Best Actress. The winner will be Julianne Moore for Still Alice, and she will be joined on nomination morning by Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon (Wild), and Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything).
I'm mentally preparing myself to soon say the words "Academy Award Nominee Jennifer Aniston". More than likely, she's getting the fifth nomination, due to her massive campaign push and current appeal (the exposure of Friends going on Netflix may help her, despite her own objections to her participation on the show). Potential upsets include Amy Adams for Big Eyes and Emily Blunt for Into the Woods, though I wouldn't hold my breath on those.
1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
3. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
4. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
5. Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Cue boring category number two! We've got four guarantees, and one (relatively) open slot: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), and Edward Norton (Birdman).
The fifth slot seems to belong to Robert Duvall for The Judge, an emotionless train wreck of a film, but one in which Duvall is the least offensive element. What I can see happening, despite heavy campaigning from co-star Robert Downey Jr. (and not Duvall, it should be said), is that they'll throw Steve Carell into this race like the BAFTA's did to alleviate the tension on Best Actor.
1. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2. Edward Norton, Birdman
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
5. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
This race is a lot more heated than people are expecting/giving it credit for. Sure, Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Keira Knightley (Imitation Game), and Emma Stone (Birdman) are in. But what about Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year) or Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)? Can they safely be called sure-fire things?
In fact, Rene Russo for Nightcrawler is crawling her way into a spot, and she'll likely replace Chastain, because A Most Violent Year is not getting the strong awards support it needs to gain attention. Streep is on the edge, for the same reason as Chastain in that Into the Woods does not have its heels dug in well enough to survive in such a major category. Then again, it is Streep. If the Academy really wants to get some great press, give the nomination to Tilda Swinton for Snowpiercer. She's popular with critics, and fans of the film are really pushing to make her the surprise nominee tomorrow morning. Who will make it? In my opinion, this one is just as exciting as Best Actor... as long as Academy voters mix it up.
1. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
3. Emma Stone, Birdman
4. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
5. Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Best Original Screenplay/Best Adapted Screenplay
The screenplays this year aren't amazing, but they're not boring either (for a real snoozefest, check out Best Original Score potentials... oh boy oh boy). Many of the Best Picture nominees will also win big at screenplay nominations, plus a few other surprises from some of the less hopeful films. Original Screenplay is much more stacked than Adapted Screenplay, mainly because this was a great year for innovative motion pictures. I'm basing my predictions on what the WGA has nominated, in combination with what is going to be up for Best Picture.
(Original Screenplay)
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Boyhood
3. Nightcrawler
4. Birdman
5. Foxcatcher
(Adapted Screenplay)
1. Gone Girl
2. The Imitation Game
3. American Sniper
4. Whiplash
5. The Theory of Everything
Thanks for reading!! Come back tomorrow to see how I did, and I'll be covering the 76th Academy Awards for the next two months, so get ready to celebrate some of the best cinema had to offer in 2014!!
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