Thursday, January 15, 2015

How Did I Do? My 2015 Oscar Nomination Predictions vs. What Actually Went Down

Ok so the nominations for the 87th Academy Awards were announced this morning, with the usual number of twists and turns one has come to expect from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. Click here for the complete list of nominees, and on this blog today, we're going to look at what I predicted the Academy would nominate vs. what actually went down.

Let's break down first the categories I talked about, and then we'll go into some other category shockers:

Best Picture

What I Said:
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Imitation Game
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Theory of Everything
6. Selma
7. Nightcrawler
8. American Sniper
9. Whiplash

The Actual Nominees:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

One off. I technically guessed all the nominees, minus the fact that I sorely overestimated the potential of Nightcrawler. It only received one nomination, for Best Original Screenplay. The other one I got right, but also overestimated the Academy's potential admiration of it, is Selma- it only received two nominations (with the only other one for "Glory" as Best Original Song). It's a shocking omission that's bound to gain some notoriety- especially considering the unfortunate lack of diversity among this year's nominees across the board

On the positive side, however, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel dominated the nominations with nine a piece, indicating strong support for those two heavyweights. And, both are considered comedies- a rare feat from the usually over-serious Academy voters. Boyhood, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything did about as well as expected.

The shocks here are, in a small sense, Whiplash, because many didn't think it had a chance to sneak into the Best Picture category. And, in a much bigger way, American Sniper, which garnered a whopping six nominations- the same as perceived frontrunner Boyhood (which only received so few nominations because it's simplicity likely wasn't "flashy" enough for Oscar voters). American Sniper has grown more and more powerful over the past weeks, and is the new dark horse threat to watch. No one, myself included, expected to see so much love for this Eastwood picture.

Best Director

What I Said:
1. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
3. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Ava DuVernay, Selma
5. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash 

The Actual Nominees:
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Two off. The biggest snub in this category is the omission of Ava DuVernay for Selma. This seemed like the year when we'd finally have a black woman as a nominee, but the Academy apparently thought otherwise. While I found DuVernay's direction not up to par with the rest of the nominees, she certainly did a better job than the uninspired Morten Tyldum and Bennet Miller. The latter nominee came out of nowhere for me- especially considering the fact that Foxcatcher is not up for Best Picture (it's very rare for a Best Director nominee to not have their film featured in Best Picture), his inclusion seems wonky at best. In any case, it's exciting to see Richard Linklater and Wes Anderson gain their first ever Best Director nominations.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

What I Said:
1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
3. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
4. David Oyelowo, Selma
5. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

The Actual Nominees:
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Two off. Foxcatcher and American Sniper did much better than I expected, and I'm ecstatic that Cooper got in for his brave and intense performance. He's arguably my favorite actor working in the film industry today, and he today became the first actor in over a decade to be nominated for three consecutive Oscars. If only the too-often-snubbed Ralph Fiennes could have gotten in, I would have my triumvirate dream team of Cooper, Fiennes, and Keaton up for Best Actor. David Oyelowo really should be in instead of Carell, but like I've already said, the Academy really didn't think too fondly of Selma. Jake Gyllenhaal's omission is also a bit of a plot twist, considering that film's massive momentum up to this point.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

What I Said:
1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
3. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
4. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
5. Jennifer Aniston, Cake

The Actual Nominees:
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

One off. I must say, beside American Sniper's surprise successes, Cotillard's nomination was my happiest shock of the morning. I adore her as an actress, and I cannot wait to see her work on this little-seen Belgian film as soon as possible. She's had an amazing year between this and The Immigrant, and I'm glad the Academy recognized her success for the first time since awarding her the Oscar in 2007. The rest of the category went exactly as predicted, with the only real plot twist was that Pike's nomination represents the sole nomination of Gone Girl, which was snubbed everywhere else.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

What I Said:
1. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2. Edward Norton, Birdman
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
5. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

The Actual Nominees:
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

One off. Wow, Duvall made it after all! All the campaigning by Robert Downey, Jr. paid off (though Aniston's didn't), and the respected actor gained the fifth slot in an otherwise horrendously boring category. Spearheaded by surefire winner J.K. Simmons, don't expect a whole lot of excitement from this award this year.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

What I Said:
1. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
3. Emma Stone, Birdman
4. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
5. Rene Russo, Nightcrawler

The Actual Nominees:
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

One off. Laura Dern, at once perceived a strong possibility in this category, dropped off the radar when she failed to get much awards attention. However, the Oscars provided a pleasant surprise from this ray of sunshine whom Hollywood adores. Streep also continues her Academy love with her 19th career nomination.

Best Original Screenplay/Best Adapted Screenplay

What I Said:
(Original Screenplay)
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Boyhood
3. Nightcrawler
4. Birdman
5. Foxcatcher

(Adapted Screenplay)
1. Gone Girl
2. The Imitation Game
3. American Sniper
4. Whiplash
5. The Theory of Everything

The Actual Nominees:
(Original Screenplay)
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler

(Adapted Screenplay)
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

100% on Original, one off on Adapted. Biggest upset came in the form that I thought Gone Girl was destined to win Best Adapted Screenplay at the very least, but Oscar voters had another opinion. Instead, they chose Inherent Vice, a movie I just saw and utterly despised. Otherwise, no shocks, but well deserved nominees.

Next, I'll quickly run down some of the biggest surprises and snubs not in the major categories.


Surprises: Mr. Turner gained four nominations in the technical categories, which had me biting my teeth that one-time frontrunner Timothy Spall was back in the game; alas, he's not, but the film's beautiful imagery was recognized instead. This was also a great day for Marvel Studios, whose Guardians of the Galaxy and Captain America: The Winter Soldier received honors. Ida, a Polish film featuring some of the best cinematography of the year, ended up receiving a nomination for Best Cinematography. Also more than happy to see the adorable "Feast", the animated short film featured before Big Hero 6 (which is up for Best Animated Feature!), receive an Oscar nomination, as well as the song "Lost Stars" from the criminally underrated Begin Again.

Snubs: THE LEGO MOVIE. The meta-genius hit gained a nomination for catchy "Everything is AWESOME!", yet could not garner a Best Animated Feature nod. Why, one might ask? Who knows, but that has received the most internet flack since the nominations were unveiled. Unbroken and Into the Woods walked away with only three nods each, much different than was originally perceived from would-be juggernauts. A Most Violent Year, Life Itself, Force Majeure, and Big Eyes also came up empty-handed- shocking considering their awards-friendly potential.

There you have it! I'll be doing my weekly breakdown of the four acting races, and Best Picture, starting next Friday. Until then, go check out some Oscar-nominated films!!! You won't be disappointed; I LOVE seven out of the eight nominees for Best Picture.

Also, on a more serious note, let's remember to focus on appreciating the films that were nominated, instead of harping on what missed the cut. This was a great year for cinema, and the Oscar nominees prove that fact. Don't disrespect the nominees that rightfully deserve a place among the best of the year because your personal favorite didn't make the cut. It's an honor just to be nominated, remember, and you'll do yourself no good in complaining about the choices of the Academy. I truly believe these were some of the best choices the Academy could make, and I will continue to support their decisions with all my heart.

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