Oscar Countdown 2015: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Welcome to Oscar Countdown 2015! Every Friday for the next four weeks, I'll be breaking down one of the four acting categories, with the final post dedicated to Best Picture. The five individuals in each  acting category were selected from literally hundreds of possibilities- so we need to take a moment to honor each of these performances, and acknowledge the major feat of being nominated for an Academy Award. And NEW this year, I have attached videos of each of the actors in an important clip from the film. No spoilers, I promise, but I tried my hardest to find their best, most accessible clips that will give you a taste of their performances before you read about them. This will hopefully put the actors in context with one another as well. (*NOTE: These clips feature EXPLICIT language, so viewer discretion is advised. I do not own these clips, and they are the property of their respective film studios). So, without further adieu, up today is... Best Actor in a Supporting Role!

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Much like Best Actress in a Supporting Role, the Academy chose some weird filler nominees to bulk up a category with an otherwise easy to call winner. Duvall was one of the names that no one was expecting, despite the SAG nomination and some critic's attention. In fact, no one really liked the movie he co-starred with Robert Downey, Jr. in, The Judge, even though the veteran actor's arguably the least objectionable element about the picture. It also seems odd to me that Warner Bros. keeps pushing Duvall as an Oscar contender, because frankly, Duvall doesn't even seem like he wants to be in the movie in the first place. It certainly comes across that way in his performance, and while I love seeing classic actors getting awards attention.... really, Duvall was your choice? It's a cold performance from a frigid film, and the plethora of actors that could have been nominated in his place are staggering. Oh well, the Academy has spoken- at least we get to witness his first nomination in over a decade.

Oscar History: Nominated for a total of six Oscars, so we'll focus on just his Supporting Actor bids; they include The Godfather in 1972, Apocalypse Now in 1979, and A Civil Action in 1998. He won Best Actor in a Leading Role for his work in Tender Mercies in 1983.

Oscar Chances: Low

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

A man who has worked with director Richard Linklater for over a decade now, Boyhood father Ethan Hawke gives one of the simplest, yet elegant, performances of his career. He fits in with the narrative as an absent father, but his role becomes so much more than that- taking him in a direction that's hard to predict and marvelous to behold. Plus, the film being Boyhood, we seem him age ten years right before our very eyes. His cinematic experiences show in each facial expression, each nuanced action Hawke makes during the movie, and we can tell how heavy his own life is weighing into the performance. Though Patricia Arquette is getting all the awards for her role in Boyhood, Hawke has always faithfully stood by her as a fellow nominee; and, unlike most of the nominees in this category, he actually deserves to be here. 

Oscar History: He was nominated for Best Supporting Actor in 2001 for Training Day. Notably, he has also been nominated twice for Best Adapted Screenplay- both times working with Richard Linklater.

Oscar Chances: Low-Medium

Edward Norton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

I've never particularly been a major fan of Edward Norton, but he does do an excellent job in Birdman... mainly because he's playing a caricature of himself. The only other potential for upset for the leader in this category, Norton spectacularly gives it his all in a movie that recently won Best Cast from the Screen Actor's Guild Awards. A film that demands long takes and intense pressure from its actors, Norton seems to relish in the opportunity to "bare his soul" and "wrestle with complex human emotions"- all while getting drunk for "authenticity"'s sake. It's a funny role in a sometimes serious, sometimes comedic picture, and definitely one that's more showy than many of his counterparts. He's not the best part of the film, but he's certainly not the worst. Ironically enough, my favorite Edward Norton role is probably this one, because it just seems the most... honest.

Oscar History: He was nominated for Best Supporting Actor in 1996 for Primal Fear, and for Best Actor in American History X in 1998.

Oscar Chances: Medium

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

Another cold performance from a freezing film, Ruffalo nevertheless gives the best performance among the three leads in Foxcatcher. His best scene (and likely the one that netted him an Oscar nomination) comes towards the end of the picture, when he tries to explain DuPont's influence on him in front of a stationary camera. I couldn't find that clip online, but it's good to note how quiet and restrained Ruffalo exists for most of the picture. He's tragically sad, and it's a role that works well in the context of the film- if sometimes he's overshadowed by heavy makeup, rigid direction, and a screenplay so lackluster not even the creepiness can save the movie. Ruffalo is a great actor, nevertheless, and it's good to see him, like Knightley, nominated for a year that included the awesome Begin Again and the heartbreaking HBO movie The Normal Heart. I'll pretend like he was nominated for those instead. 

Oscar History: He was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for The Kids Are All Right in 2010.

Oscar Chances: Low

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you your 2015 Best Supporting Actor winner! J.K. Simmons has dominated the awards race this season for his terrifying, brutal, and flawless performance as Terrence Fletcher in Whiplash. A character actor that has done everything from Law & Order to Spider-Man, Simmons is finally getting the awards recognition that has been coming for years now. And he hits Fletcher out of the park, giving arguably the best performance of the year, lead or supporting. He's a villain who's scarier and more threatening than the best comic book films had to offer, and it's hard to take your eyes off him. He also makes viewers question the price of greatness, and brings forth several theories about what success means in a world where trophies are handed out for trying. Haunting, menacing, and utterly magnificent, we're all excited to see Simmons win an Oscar on February 22nd. 

Oscar History: This is his first nomination.

Oscar Chances: High

So, when it's all said and done, here's what the Best Actor in a Supporting Role Oscar race is looking like as of January 30th:

Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Could Win: Edward Norton, Birdman

Should Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

See you all next week for... Best Actress in a Leading Role!

Oscar Countdown 2015: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Welcome to Oscar Countdown 2015! Every Friday for the next five weeks, I'll be breaking down one of the four acting categories, with the final post dedicated to Best Picture. In these posts, I will be breaking down each of the five nominees for you guys, so that you have a sense in not only will win the Oscar, but also who gave some of the best performances of the year. The five individuals in each category were selected from literally hundreds of possibilities- so we need to honor each of these actors for even a moment and acknowledge the major feat of being nominated for an Academy Award. And NEW this year, I have attached videos of each of the actors in an important clip from the film. No spoilers, I promise, but tried my hardest to find their best, most accessible clips that will give you a taste of their performances before you read about them. This will hopefully put the actors in context with one another as well. (*NOTE: These clips feature EXPLICIT language, so viewer discretion is advised. I do not own these clips, and they are the property of their respective film studios). So, without further adieu, first up today is... Best Actress in a Supporting Role!

Here are the nominees:

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Arquette has had pretty smooth sailing in terms of raking up awards wins, and her victory at the Academy Awards is all but certain at this point. She certainly deserves it; she gives one of the most nuanced performances of the year, playing a tragic mother figure we grow just as fond of as the titular boy Mason. Watching her gracefully age on the screen is a reminder of our own mortality, and about how the little mistakes in life can add up to have lasting impacts. From one moment to the next, we sense how damaged her character is, until it all builds up to the explosive monologue featured in the scene featured here. It's heartbreaking, and highlights how emotionally invested Arquette is in this film. Out of the four actors in Boyhood, Arquette easily shines the brightest, and she'll take home the award for all the actors featured in the project over twelve years. Expect her to win big on February 22nd.
Oscar History: This is her first nomination.
Oscar Chances: High

Laura Dern, Wild

One of the bigger shocks of Oscar Nominations Day was hearing Laura Dern's name take the wide open fifth Best Supporting Actress slots. A space left open for adventurous picks like Tilda Swinton in Snowpiercer or Rene Russo in Nightcrawler was ultimately filled by a boring candidate, albeit one that's hard to hate. Dern has been a Hollywood mainstay for decades now, and though Wild isn't nearly her best work, the fact that she hasn't been nominated since 1991 is kind of a sin. Her character in Wild is an eternal optimist beaten down by the tragic forces that surround her, and she has the biggest impact on her daughter, who is played by fellow nominee Reese Witherspoon. It's a largely thankless role that gets lost in the shuffle of a not-so-exiciting picture, and while I would have preferred a more exciting pick for Best Supporting Actress, I cannot say I was surprised to see the former frontrunner head back into the campaign trail.
Oscar History: She was nominated for Best Actress in 1991 for Rambling Rose.
Oscar Chances: Low

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

In a movie that screams "OSCAR BAIT", this is the type of role that often gets nominated for seemingly no reason other than major support for the film. But, I'm not going to complain about the nomination solely for the fact that not only is she the best performer in the picture, but also because Knightley herself has had an exceptional year. She's criminally underrated in Begin Again, went back to action star in Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, and did an indie drama that earned good reviews named Laggies. This is one of those MVP nominations, like 2011's Jessica Chastain (for The Help, not nearly her best work of that year). As for her particular performance in The Imitation Game, she stands apart in a world full of men with heart and vitality uncommon in that era. She gives a lot of heart to her performance, and though there's more fleshed out will-they-or-won't-they chemistry with Benedict Cumberbatch than with Mark Ruffalo in Begin Again, she's never reduced to a romantic stereotype. Considering how easy that could have been, that achievement is worth a nomination alone. We need more strong female performers like Knightley who can really delve into a world with both strength and humor. (Also, Dear Academy: PLEASE have Knightley perform "Lost Stars" at the Oscars instead of Adam Levine, I'm begging you. Her version is pure emotion and tragedy, while his sounds like every other Maroon 5 song).
Oscar History: She was nominated for Best Actress in 2005 for Pride and Prejudice.
Oscar Chances: Medium 

Emma Stone, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

One of the most charismatic, hilarious, manic young women in the world today is Emma Stone, and I'm so happy to be including her with this wonderful group of women. She can go anywhere from superhero mainstream (The Amazing Spider-Man 2) to this artful drama with soul and vibrance that makes me excited about New Hollywood. Her performance in Birdman is so raw and edgy that it's hard to realize you're actually watching a performance. She yells, curses, chews through the scenery, and more than holds her own against powerhouse performances from Michael Keaton, Edward Norton, and Naomi Watts. This monologue in particular is so powerful and prophetic that it constitutes on the most unforgettable segments in a picture with so many. As much as I loved Arquette in Boyhood, the performances in Birdman were much more refined, and Stone is one of the leading arguments in that opinion. I thought she was brilliant in both of her films this year, and I couldn't be more interested to see what she does next.
Oscar History: This is her first nomination.
Oscar Chances: Medium-High

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

The continual love and support for the incomparable Meryl Streep continues in 2015 with her showy role in Into the Woods. I guess the Academy was upset they didn't nominate her for Mamma Mia! in 2008- after all, they've nominated her for everything else besides a musical. While she's certainly better in Into the Woods, she's one of the weaker links in the chain of actors in that wonderful Disney musical. She belts out "Stay with Me" and "Last Midnight" with the ferocity of a tiger and the elegance of a Queen, but besides those two show-stoppers, she doesn't excite all that much in the film. Much like Dern, the Academy could have spiced things up in this category with some new nominees, but they just had to nominate Meryl... again.
Oscar History: With 19 nominations to date including this one, we'll just stick with her Best Supporting Actress bids: she was nominated for The Deer Hunter in 1978, and in 2002 for Adaptation. She won for Best Supporting Actress in 1979 for Kramer vs. Kramer.
Oscar Chances: Low-Medium

So, after all is said and done, this is what it's looking like as of January 23:

WILL WIN: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
COULD WIN: Emma Stone, Birdman

SHOULD WIN: Emma Stone, Birdman

Thanks for reading everyone! I hope to see you next week for... Best Actor in a Supporting Role!

How Did I Do? My 2015 Oscar Nomination Predictions vs. What Actually Went Down

Ok so the nominations for the 87th Academy Awards were announced this morning, with the usual number of twists and turns one has come to expect from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. Click here for the complete list of nominees, and on this blog today, we're going to look at what I predicted the Academy would nominate vs. what actually went down.

Let's break down first the categories I talked about, and then we'll go into some other category shockers:

Best Picture

What I Said:
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Imitation Game
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Theory of Everything
6. Selma
7. Nightcrawler
8. American Sniper
9. Whiplash

The Actual Nominees:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

One off. I technically guessed all the nominees, minus the fact that I sorely overestimated the potential of Nightcrawler. It only received one nomination, for Best Original Screenplay. The other one I got right, but also overestimated the Academy's potential admiration of it, is Selma- it only received two nominations (with the only other one for "Glory" as Best Original Song). It's a shocking omission that's bound to gain some notoriety- especially considering the unfortunate lack of diversity among this year's nominees across the board

On the positive side, however, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel dominated the nominations with nine a piece, indicating strong support for those two heavyweights. And, both are considered comedies- a rare feat from the usually over-serious Academy voters. Boyhood, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything did about as well as expected.

The shocks here are, in a small sense, Whiplash, because many didn't think it had a chance to sneak into the Best Picture category. And, in a much bigger way, American Sniper, which garnered a whopping six nominations- the same as perceived frontrunner Boyhood (which only received so few nominations because it's simplicity likely wasn't "flashy" enough for Oscar voters). American Sniper has grown more and more powerful over the past weeks, and is the new dark horse threat to watch. No one, myself included, expected to see so much love for this Eastwood picture.

Best Director

What I Said:
1. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
3. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Ava DuVernay, Selma
5. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash 

The Actual Nominees:
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Two off. The biggest snub in this category is the omission of Ava DuVernay for Selma. This seemed like the year when we'd finally have a black woman as a nominee, but the Academy apparently thought otherwise. While I found DuVernay's direction not up to par with the rest of the nominees, she certainly did a better job than the uninspired Morten Tyldum and Bennet Miller. The latter nominee came out of nowhere for me- especially considering the fact that Foxcatcher is not up for Best Picture (it's very rare for a Best Director nominee to not have their film featured in Best Picture), his inclusion seems wonky at best. In any case, it's exciting to see Richard Linklater and Wes Anderson gain their first ever Best Director nominations.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

What I Said:
1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
3. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
4. David Oyelowo, Selma
5. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

The Actual Nominees:
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Two off. Foxcatcher and American Sniper did much better than I expected, and I'm ecstatic that Cooper got in for his brave and intense performance. He's arguably my favorite actor working in the film industry today, and he today became the first actor in over a decade to be nominated for three consecutive Oscars. If only the too-often-snubbed Ralph Fiennes could have gotten in, I would have my triumvirate dream team of Cooper, Fiennes, and Keaton up for Best Actor. David Oyelowo really should be in instead of Carell, but like I've already said, the Academy really didn't think too fondly of Selma. Jake Gyllenhaal's omission is also a bit of a plot twist, considering that film's massive momentum up to this point.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

What I Said:
1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
3. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
4. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
5. Jennifer Aniston, Cake

The Actual Nominees:
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

One off. I must say, beside American Sniper's surprise successes, Cotillard's nomination was my happiest shock of the morning. I adore her as an actress, and I cannot wait to see her work on this little-seen Belgian film as soon as possible. She's had an amazing year between this and The Immigrant, and I'm glad the Academy recognized her success for the first time since awarding her the Oscar in 2007. The rest of the category went exactly as predicted, with the only real plot twist was that Pike's nomination represents the sole nomination of Gone Girl, which was snubbed everywhere else.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

What I Said:
1. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2. Edward Norton, Birdman
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
5. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

The Actual Nominees:
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

One off. Wow, Duvall made it after all! All the campaigning by Robert Downey, Jr. paid off (though Aniston's didn't), and the respected actor gained the fifth slot in an otherwise horrendously boring category. Spearheaded by surefire winner J.K. Simmons, don't expect a whole lot of excitement from this award this year.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

What I Said:
1. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
3. Emma Stone, Birdman
4. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
5. Rene Russo, Nightcrawler

The Actual Nominees:
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

One off. Laura Dern, at once perceived a strong possibility in this category, dropped off the radar when she failed to get much awards attention. However, the Oscars provided a pleasant surprise from this ray of sunshine whom Hollywood adores. Streep also continues her Academy love with her 19th career nomination.

Best Original Screenplay/Best Adapted Screenplay

What I Said:
(Original Screenplay)
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Boyhood
3. Nightcrawler
4. Birdman
5. Foxcatcher

(Adapted Screenplay)
1. Gone Girl
2. The Imitation Game
3. American Sniper
4. Whiplash
5. The Theory of Everything

The Actual Nominees:
(Original Screenplay)
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler

(Adapted Screenplay)
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

100% on Original, one off on Adapted. Biggest upset came in the form that I thought Gone Girl was destined to win Best Adapted Screenplay at the very least, but Oscar voters had another opinion. Instead, they chose Inherent Vice, a movie I just saw and utterly despised. Otherwise, no shocks, but well deserved nominees.

Next, I'll quickly run down some of the biggest surprises and snubs not in the major categories.


Surprises: Mr. Turner gained four nominations in the technical categories, which had me biting my teeth that one-time frontrunner Timothy Spall was back in the game; alas, he's not, but the film's beautiful imagery was recognized instead. This was also a great day for Marvel Studios, whose Guardians of the Galaxy and Captain America: The Winter Soldier received honors. Ida, a Polish film featuring some of the best cinematography of the year, ended up receiving a nomination for Best Cinematography. Also more than happy to see the adorable "Feast", the animated short film featured before Big Hero 6 (which is up for Best Animated Feature!), receive an Oscar nomination, as well as the song "Lost Stars" from the criminally underrated Begin Again.

Snubs: THE LEGO MOVIE. The meta-genius hit gained a nomination for catchy "Everything is AWESOME!", yet could not garner a Best Animated Feature nod. Why, one might ask? Who knows, but that has received the most internet flack since the nominations were unveiled. Unbroken and Into the Woods walked away with only three nods each, much different than was originally perceived from would-be juggernauts. A Most Violent Year, Life Itself, Force Majeure, and Big Eyes also came up empty-handed- shocking considering their awards-friendly potential.

There you have it! I'll be doing my weekly breakdown of the four acting races, and Best Picture, starting next Friday. Until then, go check out some Oscar-nominated films!!! You won't be disappointed; I LOVE seven out of the eight nominees for Best Picture.

Also, on a more serious note, let's remember to focus on appreciating the films that were nominated, instead of harping on what missed the cut. This was a great year for cinema, and the Oscar nominees prove that fact. Don't disrespect the nominees that rightfully deserve a place among the best of the year because your personal favorite didn't make the cut. It's an honor just to be nominated, remember, and you'll do yourself no good in complaining about the choices of the Academy. I truly believe these were some of the best choices the Academy could make, and I will continue to support their decisions with all my heart.

My Predictions for the 2015 Oscar Nominations

Hello all, and welcome to the beginning of Oscars 2015!!!! The coverage of all things relating to the 87th Academy Awards begins today, with what I believe will be nominated tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST. For today, I'll just be predicting the Big Five (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Screenplays), as well as the Supporting acting categories. But don't worry, once the nominations come out tomorrow morning, I'll be giving my two cents on most (if not all hopefully) of the 24 categories before Oscar Sunday on February 22nd. Come back tomorrow morning to see how many I got right!!

Let's get started with the biggie:

Best Picture

This has been a typically tight race, with two films emerging as the perceived frontrunners: Boyhood and Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance). Right there behind them are British biopics The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything, as well as Wes Anderson's zany The Grand Budapest Hotel. Those five each gained major awards recognition (in terms of each branch's equivalent of "Best Picture") from the Screen Actor's Guild Awards (SAG) and the Producer's Guild Awards (PGA), with only Theory missing the Director's Guild Awards (DGA) cut. All five are getting in.

Thanks to the Academy's wonky rules for the number of Best Picture nominees (click here for a good explanation of them), there can be anywhere between 5-10 Best Picture nominees. The past few years, since the new rules kicked in, there has been 9 nominees. So, for the sake of argument, let's go ahead and assume there's going to be that amount of nominees this year. If my math checks out, we've got four slots to work with.

Ok, so let's assume Selma is going to be nominated. It missed virtually every guild award, likely because screeners did not arrive in time for the deadline; however, the film is still proving to be a powerhouse, albeit a faded one, and it's not likely it'll miss the Best Picture cut. Let's also go ahead and figure Nightcrawler, which is weirdly proving to be an awards darling with critics and guild members everywhere, is also getting a nod. The DGA, PGA, and Writer's Guild Awards (WGA) also adore American Sniper, so that may actually have a decent shot. It also had a lot of love at the box office right during the voting sessions, so it's highly likely that voters had that movie on their minds during the process.  That leaves one spot left...

...which is where things get interesting. Could it be Gone Girl? Guilds like it enough, but it's not adored to the same level as the other frontrunners, and Fincher's snub at the DGAs is shocking considering their usual love for him. Could it be Foxcatcher? At this point, it looks unlikely, considering the cold reception it's getting as of late. The actors have a chance, and the DGA and WGA nominated it, but the controversy surrounding it's inaccuracies (spurred on by the film's subject Mark Schultz) could harm it. Could it be Into the Woods or Unbroken? Neither movie has done well at awards so far, so there's no reason to see them steal a slot for Best Picture.

But I personally think (and hope) it could be Whiplash. People love this movie, and it snuck into the PGA and WGA nominations, and the fact that J.K. Simmons will be nominated (and most likely win) means voters could realize how great the film was. Just for funnies, let's go with that one as my ninth slot.

(Nominees presented in order of likeliness to be nominated)
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Imitation Game
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Theory of Everything
6. Selma
7. Nightcrawler
8. American Sniper
9. Whiplash

Ok, because everyone votes for Best Picture, choosing those nominees is a bit trickier. But, here's where only the specific people in that branch get to choose the nominees, so predicting who they are going to pick is largely similar to their guild picks. But, this being the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, there's bound to be a shocker or two every once and a while.

Best Director

Let's start with the Director. Will this be the year when we return to the good old tradition of giving Best Director and Best Picture to the same film? It looks likely at this point, with Richard Linklater looking unbeatable for Boyhood.  Right there on his trail, though, is Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman, and Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel. According to the DGA nominations, it'll be Martin Tyldum for Imitation Game and Clint Eastwood for American Sniper as well.

BUT WAIT! What about Ava DuVernay, who's destined to become the first African-American woman ever nominated for Best Director? Who will she upset? My hope is that she'll take Tyldum's spot, because his direction is sort of ho-hum compared to the rest of them. My money, however, is on Eastwood; he's a random pick from the DGA, so I think he's fairly vulnerable. David Fincher's work on Gone Girl was great, but he missed the DGA cut, so he's more of a long-shot than a possibility at this point.

Then again, the Best Director category is notoriously weird when the nominations come out, which means Damien Chazelle could see his Whiplash work get recognized. If Whiplash is as adored as I think it is, I think he'll actually take Tyldum's spot on the final nominations. Sadly, he may also replace DuVernay. (It should be said that while I want DuVernay to be nominated for progressive reasons, I think Chazelle's work is much better in their respective films, and I would rather see him nominated than her).

1. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
3. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Ava DuVernay, Selma
5. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Here we go. The dooziest of all the categories, and likely the one that's going to have the most gasps tomorrow morning. That's because there's so many potential nominees (and heck, even winners) that could fill the slots. Let's play it safe for right now, and largely work with the SAG predictions: Michael Keaton (Birdman), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), and Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler).

Keaton and Redmayne are safe, that much at least is a given. Gyllenhaal's Nightcrawler has gotten a lot of strong support lately, and if it's got anything close to a guarantee, this is it. But Carell and Cumberbatch are not so safe to call right now, mainly for the reason of David Oyelowo (Selma). He's getting in here somewhere... but where?

The most likely scenario is, to alleviate some of the tension, the Academy voters will move Carell into Best Supporting Actor's last open slot (see below). This allows Oyelowo to take Carell's place. Cumberbatch isn't a very exciting nominee, but because of how hot he is right now in the entertainment industry, it's hard to imagine a situation in which he's not nominated.

Potential spoilers include, but are not limited to, Bradley Cooper (of the red-hot American Sniper), Ralph Fiennes (of the dark horse favorite The Grand Budapest Hotel), and Timothy Spall (of the critic's favorite Mr. Turner).

1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
3. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
4. David Oyelowo, Selma
5. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Best Actress in a Leading Role

One of the two really easy-to-predict and relatively boring categories this year is Best Actress. The winner will be Julianne Moore for Still Alice, and she will be joined on nomination morning by Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon (Wild), and Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything).

I'm mentally preparing myself to soon say the words "Academy Award Nominee Jennifer Aniston". More than likely, she's getting the fifth nomination, due to her massive campaign push and current appeal (the exposure of Friends going on Netflix may help her, despite her own objections to her participation on the show). Potential upsets include Amy Adams for Big Eyes and Emily Blunt for Into the Woods, though I wouldn't hold my breath on those.

1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
3. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
4. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
5. Jennifer Aniston, Cake

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Cue boring category number two! We've got four guarantees, and one (relatively) open slot: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), and Edward Norton (Birdman).

The fifth slot seems to belong to Robert Duvall for The Judge, an emotionless train wreck of a film, but one in which Duvall is the least offensive element. What I can see happening, despite heavy campaigning from co-star Robert Downey Jr. (and not Duvall, it should be said), is that they'll throw Steve Carell into this race like the BAFTA's did to alleviate the tension on Best Actor.

1. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2. Edward Norton, Birdman
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
5. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

This race is a lot more heated than people are expecting/giving it credit for. Sure, Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Keira Knightley (Imitation Game), and Emma Stone (Birdman) are in. But what about Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year) or Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)? Can they safely be called sure-fire things?

In fact, Rene Russo for Nightcrawler is crawling her way into a spot, and she'll likely replace Chastain, because A Most Violent Year is not getting the strong awards support it needs to gain attention. Streep is on the edge, for the same reason as Chastain in that Into the Woods does not have its heels dug in well enough to survive in such a major category. Then again, it is Streep. If the Academy really wants to get some great press, give the nomination to Tilda Swinton for Snowpiercer. She's popular with critics, and fans of the film are really pushing to make her the surprise nominee tomorrow morning. Who will make it? In my opinion, this one is just as exciting as Best Actor... as long as Academy voters mix it up.

1. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
3. Emma Stone, Birdman
4. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
5. Rene Russo, Nightcrawler

Best Original Screenplay/Best Adapted Screenplay

The screenplays this year aren't amazing, but they're not boring either (for a real snoozefest, check out Best Original Score potentials... oh boy oh boy). Many of the Best Picture nominees will also win big at screenplay nominations, plus a few other surprises from some of the less hopeful films. Original Screenplay is much more stacked than Adapted Screenplay, mainly because this was a great year for innovative motion pictures. I'm basing my predictions on what the WGA has nominated, in combination with what is going to be up for Best Picture.

(Original Screenplay)
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Boyhood
3. Nightcrawler
4. Birdman
5. Foxcatcher

(Adapted Screenplay)
1. Gone Girl
2. The Imitation Game
3. American Sniper
4. Whiplash
5. The Theory of Everything

Thanks for reading!! Come back tomorrow to see how I did, and I'll be covering the 76th Academy Awards for the next two months, so get ready to celebrate some of the best cinema had to offer in 2014!!