Oscar Countdown 2014: Best Picture

We officially have only ONE WEEK to go! The 84th Academy Awards are next Sunday, and the race couldn't be more exciting. The greatest actors of our generation are vying for their own gold, but the movies they star in are also in hot contention. With no less than three movies having a reasonable chance of winning, this is by far the best horse race in the past decade. This is the year of survival in film, and each character fights for control of their own lives in some unique way. For the first time ever, I have been able to see all nine of the movies up for Oscar's top prize, and they all deserve the award. But, since there must be a winner, we're analyzing each film's chances of success. Today, we're looking at the nine movies competing for the Best Motion Picture of 2013.

12 Years a Slave

Ever since the early predictions started, 12 Years a Slave has been on the top of everyone's lists. However, interestingly enough, 12 Years isn't supposed to win a large chunk of the awards. That being said, it has nearly swept the prizes where Best Picture was a category, including tying for the Producers Guild Award, and recently won the BAFTA. And it's not hard to imagine why- the movie is a brutal depiction of the cruelty of slavery, more relevant now than ever. Steve McQueen, through only three films, has showed the harshness of life, and none have been as epic as 12 Years. This movie is one of the top three choices for Oscar voters, and the only things that stand in its way are called American Hustle and Gravity. That being said, while the other two movies have faults of their own, 12 Years a Slave is arguably the best all-around picture, with solid acting, writing, cinematography, sound, music, and direction. It represents exactly what Best Picture aims to honor.
OSCAR CHANCES: HIGH


American Hustle

With "10538 Overture" and other '70's anthems blaring in the background, American Hustle is an addicting drama, with the Screen Actor Guild's choice for the Best Cast of the year. It's characters are fascinating, it's story is intriguing, and David O. Russell has proven himself to be one of the most resilient and talented writer-directors of the decade. While it's 1970's backdrop may not seem too relevant, American Hustle benefits from the perfect cast with the perfect director at the right time. Almost all of them Russell regulars, and it's clear their chemistry is solid throughout this engaging crime saga. With 10 nominations to its name, Hustle ties Gravity for having the most nominations of the night. It was even once declared the Oscar frontrunner; however, recently, the film seems to be losing steam, and has not made a huge impact on guild awards lately. However, one should not underestimate how much the Academy loved this movie when it first came out, and how Russell has done the impossible and been up for the Big Five two years in a ROW. American Hustle is probably his best film yet, and it's the safe choice for Academy voters who can't decide between Gravity or 12 Years a Slave. It's a popular movie that could end up going all the way, and no one will complain if it does.
OSCAR CHANCES: HIGH


Captain Phillips

Captain Phillips has been shamefully neglected by the Academy. For being one of the finest films of the year (my #5 pick), it failed to receive a nomination for Best Actor or Best Director, and is not expected to win virtually anything (except for a possible Editing victory). The Guild awards have honored the film on several occasions, honoring it's breathtaking editing and Barkhad Abdi's first-ever film role. But the Academy does not seem very keen on picking the movie in its six nominations, and it's Best Picture victory is the longest shot of them all. In any case, you should still check out this solid action thriller; it's fresh from CNN, and has a comeback role for Hank's seemingly stalling career. It's a shame the Academy could not recognize it more.
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW



Dallas Buyers Club

As far as acting prizes go, Dallas Buyers Club is likely to claim half, with Mathew McConaughey and Jared Leto looking like virtual locks for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor, respectively. However, much beyond that, the Dallas Buyers won't be winning much else. Their Best Picture odds are not very strong, with only a handful of other nominations (some of which they'll win; more on Best Makeup next week). They can sleep well knowing they have at least three prizes in the bag, and will go down in Oscar history as being one of the few movies to claim both male acting awards. Just don't expect it to make much a Best Picture showing.
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW







Gravity

Dear Members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences,

I, like a handful of many devoted Oscar fans, were very excited to see that Gravity was tied for the most nominations of the evening, including Best Picture. As far as movies of 2013 go, none were as breathtaking or visually spectacular as Gravity. It represents definitive proof as to why people need to go the movies to fully experience a motion picture, and will go down in history as easily the most influential film of the year. In addition, I have been happy to see that many Oscar pundits are predicting Gravity to sweep many of the technical awards. It deserves this recognition, and, as far as I know, is a virtual lock for Best Cinematography, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing, Best Original Score, and even Best Director for the landmark visionary Alfonso Cuaron. My question is this: why are so many saying that, even with all these achievements pretty much guaranteed, 12 Years a Slave is going to win Best Picture? It's not that it's a bad movie- it's an amazing work of art that deserves much praise. But it could have been made a decade ago, to the same effect. Gravity could only have been crafted at this time, and will have an astounding legacy on the history of cinema. It's the kind of movie event that only comes around once in a while, and so it demands to be honored whenever it can. This is YOUR chance to vote for a movie that means something, a film that has made a positive contribution to your industry, which will continue to feel its effects for years to come. Don't take the safe route this year- vote for the film that has everybody talking (and has the highest box office profits of all the nominees, to boot), and go with your gut. Cuaron's masterpiece needs to win Best Picture because it is the best movie of the year, for movie lovers in and out of the industry. Don't regret your vote five years from now; seize the opportunity to vote today. Vote Gravity for Best Picture.
OSCAR CHANCES: HIGH

Her

Spike Jonze is up for three Academy Awards this year- for Best Original Screenplay, Best Original Song, and Best Picture- all for his modern romantic fable Her. The film remains an innovative look at the state of love in the world, where a lonely man can fall for his computer easily and realistically. Jonze will probably win for Best Original Screenplay, because the story is fascinating and so intricately written. It's production design also deserves to be recognized, and Scarlett Johansson should have been up for Best Supporting Actress as the voice of Samantha, the Siri-like computer of Joaquin Phoenix. Many critics adored this movie, and romance enthusiasts should certainly check it out. That being said, the film only has a moderate chance of winning, and it's inspired screenplay will likely yield it's only prize.
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW


Nebraska

For old souls and Alexander Payne fans, Nebraska is a beloved treasure: a gorgeous black-and-white drama about tribulations of getting old. It's beautiful cinematography, as well as a story that makes viewers smile, shows the talents of this acclaimed filmmaker. Nevertheless, Nebraska will likely come out a goose egg come Oscar Sunday. It stands an outside chance because Payne is up for Best Director, and a lot of the Academy consists of elderly people that likely find this movie a welcome return to form. I personally enjoyed the movie, but thought it was easily the weakest of the nominees. With Dern and Squibb's last hope being to earn a career Oscar, Nebraska is the definition of the dark horse.
OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM



Philomena

Speaking of weak nominees, there was a lot of raised eyebrows over this sweet little British dramedy. Judi Dench is an Academy starlet, and Steve Coogan's screenplay deserves to be recognized. But the film itself is a pretty average movie, and while it's cute and entertaining, there's nothing really making Philomena a Best Picture standout. It's biggest backer, however: Harvey Weinstein. He literally made the Oscar campaigns what they are today, but this is his only movie up for Best Picture. He's won so many times in recent years that it's hard to see another executive producer taking the prize; however, Philomena is currently resting comfortably in ninth place. There will be a ton of raised eyebrows if Philomena wins Best Picture.
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW




The Wolf of Wall Street

Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio are trying their very best to get the word of mouth out on The Wolf of Wall Street. It's an incredibly raunchy film, making even the most emotionless person cringe. The movie is absolutely crazy, and I was not expecting the typically conservative Academy to recognize this wild party. However, it ended up with five shocking nominations, for Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Director, and Best Picture. The scary part? It's got probably the greatest chance of winning if 12 Years, Hustle, and Gravity manage to cancel themselves out. This is a highly popular movie gaining more and more momentum every day. The Wolf of Wall Street is also a parable about financial excess, and an attack on the corrupt financial figures throughout the world. Could this be the first movie to win DiCaprio an Oscar?
OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM

Here they are: the nine films representing the best that 2013 has to offer. In the end, it'll come down to 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, or Gravity (with The Wolf of Wall Street representing the only real outside possibility, unless Weinstein manages to make Philomena more of a thing than it deserves). If the trend continues, it appears that 12 Years a Slave is destined for Oscar gold. I'm pleading for American Hustle, and even more so Gravity, but it'll be a tight race until the very end. In a week, it will all be decided: will it be the monumental achievement in filmmaking, the greatest cast of the year, or the social issue movie? Oscar voters, it's in your court now.

Bottom line, here are my predictions as of February 23rd, 2014:

WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave
COULD WIN: Gravity or American Hustle
SHOULD WIN: Gravity

Come back next week as we break down all 24 categories!!! In the meantime, check out an Oscar-nominated movie at your local theater!