Predictions for the 86th Academy Awards

Seven months of films. Four months of awards of coverage. Two months since the nominations announcement.

It all comes down to one night.

Tonight, after months of hard campaigning and some tough competition, the 86th Academy Awards will finally happen. A lot of the prize winners are guaranteed locks, but the night's top award will happily be the biggest nail-biter of them all. For those of you doing Oscar ballots, you can print them out here. Need help predicting all 24 categories? This is your post to read- here are, with a brief analysis of each category, my predictions for who will take home Oscars at the 86th Academy Awards. 

Here we go.

Best Picture

WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave
COULD WIN: Gravity
SHOULD WIN: Gravity

I am still a firm believer in the three-way horse race between 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity. Hustle is in third place, and at this point will be a huge upset if it wins; it has a decent shot, because it's up for 10 Oscars, and the guild prizes that many base their predictions on would not yield a Russell victory in any case. However, it has a huge backing in the actor's branch (having won the SAG award), and since they represent the largest block of Academy voters, the actors should not be overlooked. Stronger arguments can be made for the other two primary competitors. 12 Years a Slave is the best combination of all the elements (even though I liked the other two much more), and will likely take the gold for the politics of cleaning the "old white guy" image of the Academy. Gravity, nevertheless, is the most popular of all the nominees- the highest box office draw, and easily the most visually stunning of the pictures. It will go down in history as the most important film of this year- it's time to award a science fiction film and go with the movie that will change the industry forever. All three deserve to win, and I will be holding my breath for the winner to be called.

Best Director

WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
COULD WIN: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
SHOULD WIN: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Despite the tight Best Picture race, Alfonso Cuaron's masterful direction of Gravity will earn him his first Academy Award. It's a directors triumph, and no matter how you feel about any of the nominees, his deservedness is virtually unanimous. McQueen and Russell will get their days eventually, but this is Cuaron's time to shine.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

WILL WIN: Mathew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
COULD WIN: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
SHOULD WIN: Mathew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

With his Mud, The Wolf of Wall Street, and Dallas Buyers Club being some of the finest performances of the year, the "McConaissance" will cumulate in an Oscar tonight. DiCaprio, much like the infamous long-time snubbing of his directorial partner and friend Martin Scorsese, will win someday. This year just feels so right for McConaughey, who has never impressed me up until this point. He will and should win.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
COULD WIN: Amy Adams, American Hustle
SHOULD WIN: Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Bullock was a revelation in Gravity, silencing naysayers who claimed her Blind Side was not deserved. The movie literally needed her, and she was the necessary soul that made Gravity more than a visual achievement- it became a virtuoso of the triumph of the human spirit. Adams is an Academy darling that never seems to win, and she gives her best performance ever in American Hustle. But it's Blanchett's mental breakdown in Blue Jasmine that will win Oscar gold- she's won everything up until this point, so her victory is almost guaranteed. A deserving performance for an undeserving film. Not that I didn't like Blanchett, she was incredible in the movie. I just wish they could give it to Bullock or Adams.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

WILL WIN: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
COULD WIN: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
SHOULD WIN: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Another great crop of nominees, in which the first place lock actually deserves the prize. Jared Leto is amazing in Dallas Buyers Club, playing a transgender AIDs victim with a tragic story and a lot of flamboyant spirit. A method actor of the highest extreme, Leto will earn his first Academy Award tonight. Abdi took the BAFTA, but that's because Dallas Buyers Club was not eligible for their awards yet. Bet on Leto- you won't regret it.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave

COULD WIN: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
SHOULD WIN: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

The other nail-biter of the evening, there's a lot of support for both Nyong'o and Lawrence. Both are deserving candidates: Nyong'o's first-ever film role is incredible, giving all the emotional power of the greatest actresses of her generation into one performance; Lawrence, who is in my opinion the finest actress to come around in a long time, continues to amaze in a showy role in American Hustle. Both steal the show, despite limited screen time. In the end, I think Lawrence's victory last year may lead to the spreading of the wealth to Nyong'o. That being said, if Lawrence wins, in addition to being the youngest three-time nominee and two-time winner, she'll be the first actress ever to win back-to-back Oscars in different categories.

Best Original Screenplay

WILL WIN: Her
COULD WIN: American Hustle
SHOULD WIN: American Hustle

Her is the epitome of originality, telling a timely story in a creative manner. Spike Jonze is up for three Oscars, and since he doesn't have a chance in Best Picture or Best Original Song ("The Moon Song" from the movie), this is where Her is likely to get a lot of attention here. American Hustle could deservedly win David O. Russell his first Oscar however, giving a wonderfully dramatic 1970's story a fun angle. It's the best screenplay of the year, but Her is walking away with this one.

Best Adapted Screenplay

WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave
COULD WIN: Captain Phillips
SHOULD WIN: The Wolf of Wall Street

An interesting thing is happening with this relatively weak category: the winner here could show our Best Picture winner. It's very rare that a Best Picture winner does not earn a Best Screenplay victory as well, and so 12 Years a Slave is the expected winner. That being said, the movie has yet to win an award for its writing- Captain Phillips took home the Writer's Guild Award for Best Adapted Screenplay (grant it, 12 Years wasn't eligible, but still- think about it). There's also a lot of support for Before Midnight, but I personally hope they give it to The Wolf of Wall Street- it's a fantastic story, and should be getting more recognition that it has been; plus, it's a powerful moral fable.

Best Animated Feature

WILL WIN: Frozen
COULD WIN: The Wind Rises
SHOULD WIN: Frozen

I finally saw Frozen a few weeks ago- it is as good as people are saying. Easily the Best Animated Feature of the year (besides personal favorite Monsters University, which wasn't nominated), it's breathtakingly crafted, with the care and precision we've come to expect from Disney. It'll be the studios first solo victory in this category (without Pixar), and is the most progressive Disney movie to come out in a while- about women's empowerment and the strength of sisterhood. Plus, of course, "Let it Go". The Wind Rises is Miyazaki's swan song, however, and because of his humongous influence on both animation and moviemaking in general, I'd be ok seeing him win as well.

Best Original Score

WILL WIN: Gravity
COULD WIN: Philomena
SHOULD WIN: Gravity

Gravity is a film that relies heavily on its music to replace some of the sounds- and it does so to magnificent effect. Steven Price's score is innovative and crazy, unlike anything we've ever heard before. Sure, a lot of heavy hitters are in this category, but Price concocted a monumental achievement in movie music.

Best Original Song

WILL WIN: "Let it Go", Frozen
COULD WIN: "Happy", Despicable Me 2
SHOULD WIN: "Let it Go", Frozen

Finally, a Best Original Song race with genuinely awesome pieces of music. All of them have a shot of victory: from U2's upbeat Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom anthem, Karen O.'s sensual "Moon Song" from Her, Pharell's infectious Despicable Me 2 theme "Happy", and the instant classic from Frozen "Let it Go" performed by Idina Menzel. All four are performing tonight- get excited, because all of the songs are really good. However, I'm going with the Disney favorite, if only because it's been stuck in my head from the moment I saw the movie.

Best Documentary Feature

WILL WIN: The Act of Killing
COULD WIN: 20 Feet from Stardom
SHOULD WIN: The Act of Killing

The documentaries here are awe-inspiring, and since the Academy has gone with the cute entertainment pieces as of late, I think it's time to award a very serious documentary about a sensitive subject.

Best Foreign Language Film

WILL WIN: The Great Beauty
COULD WIN: The Hunt
SHOULD WIN: The Hunt

Unfortunately, I have only seen one of these movies, but it did leave an impression on me. The Hunt, starring Casino Royale's Mads Mikkelsen, is about a popular teacher who quickly is denounced as being a pedophile- totally false information that spirals out of control, eventually lead to the animalistic tendencies of the small town around him. It was frustrating, terrifying, and very good- it was a popular winner around the world last year, so I hope it takes the prize. However, The Great Beauty has been a unanimous foreign language winner, so Italy takes gold here.

Best Cinematography, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Visual Effects

WILL WIN: Gravity
COULD WIN: Nebraska (Best Cinematography), Lone Survivor (Best Sound Editing/Mixing)
SHOULD WIN: Gravity

Now to the technical categories. Gravity will likely sweep all of them, so here's a brief breakdown of why: it's gorgeously shot, with innovative camera movements (still have no idea how he got inside of a helmet, or shot a 13-minute continuous 3-D opening); it's sound is inventive, because it had to create a lot of space effects that simply don't exist; and visual effects, just because, well.... just watch it and you'll find out why.

Best Production Design


WILL WIN: The Great Gatsby
COULD WIN: 12 Years a Slave
SHOULD WIN: American Hustle

If the Academy takes the historical route again, then 12 Years a Slave will win like Lincoln. That being said, the sweeping plains of the south do not hold a candle on Baz Luhermann's art direction of The Great Gatsby. Say what you will about the film, but it does look rather nice.

Best Costume Design

WILL WIN: American Hustle
COULD WIN: The Great Gatsby
SHOULD WIN: American Hustle

A lot of people are singing Gatsby's praise here, but American Hustle has got to win something. It's up for 10 Oscars, so statically one should at least be a guarantee. If not Lawrence, then I believe the Academy will take notice of the costuming of the picture. They should win for Amy Adam's dresses alone- they made the '70's sexy, and the plunging necklines show the sexual use yet vulnerability of her character.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

WILL WIN: Dallas Buyers Club
COULD WIN: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
SHOULD WIN: Dallas Buyers Club

By far the oddest group of nominees in the entire race, I can't see Jackass nor The Lone Ranger taking home Oscars tonight. The makeup team on Dallas Buyers Club turned Jared Leto into a woman, and heightened his already wonderful performance.

Best Live Action Short

WILL WIN: The Voorman Problem
COULD WIN: Helium
SHOULD WIN: Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)

Having seen all of these, I can tell you that only one impressed me: Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything), which told the thrilling story of a woman and her children trying to escape her abusive husband. It was a claustrophobic and tense film, which makes me wonder what great things director Xavier Legrand will do in the future. The rest of the movies were melodramatic and cliche, which pretty much means the Academy will choose them. Voorman is in English and stars Hobbit lead Martin Freeman, so I'll give it the slight edge over the cancer story Helium.

Best Animated Short

WILL WIN: Get a Horse!
COULD WIN: Room on the Broom
SHOULD WIN: Get a Horse!

Another lackluster crop of nominees, the winner here is obvious: a Disney cartoon that stars none other than Walt Disney himself. The production team found archival voice footage of the famous cartoonist voicing Mickey Mouse, so they used it and combined it into a contemporary cartoon that combines traditional techniques with the latest of CGI. It's a fun short that also appeared before Frozen.

Best Documentary Short

WILL WIN: The Lady in Number 6
COULD WIN: Cavedigger
SHOULD WIN: The Lady in Number 6

The frontrunner is a story about how music saved a Holocaust survivor's life. It basically screams Oscar, so I'd go for it.

Well, there they are: the biggies, the technicals, and the categories no one has seen (though you should check some of them out eventually- it'll be good for you). It all comes down the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences tonight on ABC, starting at 7 PM. Enjoy the show, and if you're interested, I'll be live tweeting during the ceremony: my handle is @RyanVenezia1006.

Have a great time celebrating the great films of 2013! It's been a long road, but tonight all will be revealed. If you need any more analysis, check out the Awards tab above for more Oscar information. Until then, have fun watching the 86th Academy Awards!!!!!!