Oscar Countdown 2014: Best Actor in a Leading Role

This year probably has the best group of acting nominees in recent memory. Any one of the 20 men and women could win, and very little would complain if they do (only in that some are more deserving than others). Because of this, we're doing a special four-week event, in which we break down each of the acting categories and their respective nominees. This week involves a clear frontrunner, but three upsets could threaten the category's predictions. It was a great year for male actors, as there was no less than ten possible choices for the nominations; the five that made it are among cinema's finest character actors. Today, we're looking at the possibilities for Best Actor in a Leading Role.

Here are the nominees:


Christian Bale, American Hustle

Like we discussed before, this was a tough category to break into. No one expected this previous Oscar winner to make the cut, and he upset once-percieved frontrunners Tom Hanks and Robert Redford. But maybe this was for a good reason- the Academy loved American Hustle, and Bale's performance has been shamefully underrated. As Irving Rosenfeld, Bale is the emotional core of the film- it's somewhat ironical that the lifelong con artist is the most stable character in American Hustle. He understands exactly what his life is, and does the best he can to protect the ones he loves. Irving Rosenfeld is the nice-guy character we're not using to seeing Bale play, and his weight-gain and creepy hairpiece all make up the brilliance of his character. It's a performance filled with nuances and just good-old-fashioned solid acting we're used to seeing from the only recipient of an Academy Award on this list.
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW


Bruce Dern, Nebraska

One of the most recognizable character actors in the industry today, Bruce Dern is finally gaining some late-career recognition for his work as a neglectful father just trying to live a little before he passes away. He was actually nominated for a Best Supporting Actor Oscar in 1978 for the film Coming Home, but this is his first real chance to take home gold. The Academy loves rewarding late-career seniors, and in a less competitive year, Dern would have a chance. He certainly deserves the praise he has received, as his role is both tragic, hilarious, and heartwarming all at once. Dern plays the grizzled old midwest retiree with loving devotion, and we find ourselves smiling right along with him up until the very last shot.
OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM


Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

One of the most popular performers in cinema today, Leonardo DiCaprio was somewhat of a surprise to see Oscar Nominations morning. Looking back on it, I'm not really sure why; it's a heck of a role, requiring much from it's leading actor. DiCaprio is in someways the obvious choice, but at the same time he takes such enormous risks on this pet project that it's a wonder the conservative Academy liked this movie so much. A rat under the guise of a wolf, Jordon Belfort is a terrible, terrible, terrible human being we love to hate. His nearly endless barrage of sex, drugs, violence, and stealing make him the most despicable character of 2013- but it's so much fun to watch, this never really registers. This is quite possibly DiCaprio's best acting to date- he goes beyond his normal typecasts in the effort to make us sympathize with a monster. We may not understand the financial logistics of what Belfort did, but thanks to Leonardo DiCaprio, we know he's one hell of a character.
OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM-HIGH


Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Many people are singing Chiwetel Ejiofor's praise as the best performance of the year- and we can't really argue too much. Ejiofor, a character actor we've seen a ton (most notably in 2012) but never really known his name, has finally become the household name he needs to be. So much of 12 Years a Slave rests on the laurels of its leading Solomon Northup, and Ejiofor brings forth all the intensity and tragedy of a free man wrongly accused. His performance is rich with so many powerful scenes, requiring the actor to endure gruelingly long shots in a troubled character state. He was subjected to so much torture, so much hardship- and virtually for no reason at all. It's a metaphor for the entire slave drama- an African American citizen just trying to make a living beyond the heavy racism that surrounds him, only to be thrust into the humiliation that threatens his people. Ejiofor certainly would be a lot of people's first choice as the most important role of 2013.
OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM


Mathew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Out of all the character actors up for their Best Leading performance, none hold a candle to the chances of Mathew McConaughey. In a great year for acting important roles, he plays a homophobic Texas rancher who is diagnosed with AIDs- and ends up changing his ways to try and save his city from the corrupt medical practitioners and give people the medicine they need to survive. What's most impressive for the performer is his dramatic weight loss for the role- the usually fit McConaughey sheds massive pounds in order to truly play the real-life AIDs victim Ron Woodruff. He gives such raw emotional energy to the performance that's its nearly impossible to see anyone else upsetting him. He makes us feel for his character in so many ways, and it's life-affirming to see how one once terrible person can become a national hero. It's a role that reminds us why McConaughey got into acting in the first place.
OSCAR CHANCES: HIGH

Well, here are the five that made it. These are the actors that the Academy felt deserved the highest acting honor- the acting equivalent of a championship prize. McConaughey has won a SAG and Golden Globe for his dramatic comeback work, and he's liking to win the triple crown with a first-time Oscar win. However, if the Academy doesn't select him, than it's a wide open field that's arguably harder to call than the Best Picture race (though don't expect anyone but McConaughey to win). DiCaprio is WAY overdue for an Oscar victory, and he's currently sitting in second place with a Golden Globe-Comedy win; Ejiofor and Dern also pose a sizable threat in their own rights. Unfortunately, Bale is going home empty-handed. But honestly, all of these roles deserve the recognition of an Academy Award- it's a shame there can't be a five-way tie.

WILL WIN: Mathew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
COULD WIN: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street 
SHOULD WIN: Christian Bale, American Hustle

Well, there's all the acting nominees! Be sure to check out the previous category analyses. Until then, don't worry, because we'll keep you busy with plenty of Oscar coverages. Next week, we're looking at the most disputed Best Picture race in over a decade- and one of the most exciting ones, to boot. See you then!