Oscar Countdown 2014: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

This year probably has the best group of acting nominees in recent memory. Any one of the 20 men and women could win, and very little would complain if they do (only in that some are more deserving than others). Because of this, we're doing a special four-week event, in which we break down each of the acting categories and their respective nominees. This week, we're diving into a category soaked with some of the greatest villains, transformations, and eccentric personalities of the year. Today, we're looking at the category Best Actor in a Supporting Role.

Here are the nominees:

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

From taxi driver to Oscar nominee in a year: the Academy loves awarding this category with newcomers. And Abdi gives a fascinating first performance. In Captain Phillips, he plays the story's antagonist, but is far from being a bad guy; Abdi makes Muse sympathetic and relatable, making the audience empathize with his character's tough situation. The audience does not root for him necessarily, but they certainly get where he's coming from. And in a thriller's villain, what more could we ask for? Barkhad Abdi sinks his teeth into this role, and even awarding him a nomination is praise enough. I'm so glad that the Academy recognized his talent (even though they virtually ignored his co-star, but that's another story...).
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW-MEDIUM


Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

His nomination is hardly a surprise, considering how much the Academy adored American Hustle. But in such a competitive year, it's nice to see Cooper's talents being recognized once again. For two years in a row, he's been nominated for his work on a David O. Russell picture, and this year's Richie DiMaso is a completely different kind of crazy. Obsessive, determined, and violently unstable, Cooper's portrayal of an out-of-control FBI agent is certainly worth the attention. He holds his own amidst a highly talented ensemble, and could end up walking away with one of Hustle's four acting nominations (though not likely). Richie DiMaso is a character you both love and hate, and is a fun character for the surprisingly talented Bradley Cooper.
                                                             OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM




Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

After being robbed of an acting nod in 2011, Fassbender's reunion with Steve McQueen on 12 Years a Slave has earned him much-deserved praise and his first Oscar nomination. Michael Fassbender is an incredibly powerful actor, able to dominate a scene with his gentleman-like charm and beast-like ferocity. In this slave drama, he plays a brutal slave owner named Epps, who becomes the bane to Solomon Northrup's existence. A staunchly racist, bible-thumping driver with problems of his own, Epps takes villainy to a whole new level. Fassbender is the vessel by which to guide that villainy, and will possibly be rewarded for that dedication with an Academy Award.
OSCAR CHANCES: MEDIUM


Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

One of the biggest shocks on Nomination Day was Jonah Hill being announced as a candidate for Best Supporting Actor. Not that Hill doesn't deserve the attention, because his Donnie Azoff is an eccentric character that makes the audience roll in hilarity. Hill is becoming an odd favorite of the Academy, which voted for him two years ago for his work in Moneyball. While Hill's performance may not be as fresh as it was in 2011, no one can deny the comedian's dramatic chops. In The Wolf of Wall Street, he is wild, exuberant, daring, and almost... real. Who would have thought the guy from Superbad and 21 Jump Street would be so convincing?
OSCAR CHANCES: LOW


Ok, there are the nominees. But, wait, there's one more, right? Yes, and this is going to be the only nominee that matters. This category has pretty much the only lock of the evening, and although there are one or two frontrunners in the other acting awards, Best Supporting Actor will undoubtedly go to this man:


Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club


The 30 Seconds to Mars-frontman and hardcore method actor will take home his first Academy Award on March 2. And rightfully so- Jared Leto completely morphs into a transgender AIDs patient who helps McConaughey's Ron Woodruff to sell medicine. His role is gut-wrenchingly hilarious yet heartbreakingly tragic. But that's not what's going to win Leto the Oscar; it's his complete devotion to the role, right now to his dangerous weight loss that rivals McConaughey's own; it's this transformation and dedication to the character that the Academy loves to reward. No matter how much I love the other characters up for Best Supporting Actor, Leto gives the best performance, and this is his year to shine.
OSCAR CHANCES: VERY HIGH

But on the off chance that Leto doesn't win this award, who will take home the prize? Fassbender and Cooper are the only possible upsets, though the odds of that happening are slim. Leto deserves and will win Best Actor in a Supporting Role. However, simply having a nomination is a prize enough, and these five men should be lucky to have been included in such a great year for acting on the silver screen.

Bottom line, here are the predictions as of January 24, 2014 (NOTE: I'm giving the dates next to bottom-line predictions, because there's still lots of jockeying and stuff that can happen before the Academy Awards on March 2):

WILL WIN: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
COULD WIN: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
SHOULD WIN: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Join us next week as we take an inside look at the Best Actress in a Supporting Role category!