Best Picture
Lincoln, on the other hand, is better targeted towards the older members of the Academy. It is Steven Spielberg's best film in years, and boast a wide array of incredible performances, a strong screenplay, and marvelous production. It has the most nominations, a typical indicator of big winners; and, it managed to influence people of all ages through a moving tale of it's title president. Lincoln fits the overall mold of a Best Picture winner, and for that reason, I believe that it will take the Academy's highest honor tonight. Will I be surprised if Argo wins? Not really. It's certainly a worthy film. But Lincoln just seems to press all the right Academy buttons.
What Should Win: Django Unchained. I know this one's a long shot, but Quentin Tarantino has not won in so long. It was way back in 1994 when he won his one and only Oscar for Best Original Screenplay for Pulp Fiction. Django is a fun Western film with a lot of guts (literally), and should be recognized for reaffirming how influential of a director Tarantino remains. Here's hoping for a little bit of love for the picture tonight.
Best Director
Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln. It's been almost fifteen years since Spielberg has won an Academy Award, and with no Ben Affleck standing in his way, his win is a virtual lock. Lincoln has been Spielberg's pet project for years, so a win would be very fitting for this highly talented history aficionado and cinematic legend.Who Should Win: Spielberg, but David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook. Spielberg deserves to win, hands down. But David O. Russell needs to at least be recognized for providing such sensitive direction to a potentially disastrous project. The reason Silver Linings Playbook is so successful is because it takes the delicate subject matter of bipolar disorder and turns it into a reaffirming romantic comedy. Plus, who can argue with the fact that he made the movie for his bipolar son? A true masterpiece in direction.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln. Does this one even need explanation? Daniel Day-Lewis is one of the greatest actors of our generation, and he gives one of the best performances of all time in Lincoln. Awe inspiring, and one of the few guaranteed locks at this year's Oscars.
Who Should Win: Day-Lewis, but Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook. If this were any other year, Bradley Cooper would be taking home the gold statuette. This is the guy who came from The Hangover, The A-Team, and Hit and Run to give one of the most powerful performances of the year. It's a shame he has been in the shadows this awards season, because who knew this guy could actually act?
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook. Best Actress has been a contested category. Though Jessica Chastain was the early critic's favorite, Jennifer Lawrence has done well in the recent awards. Her only real competition is Emmanuelle Riva in Amour, who, at 86, is the sentimental favorite. Riva won the BAFTA (the British equivalent of the Oscars) for Best Actress, and since she likely won't be nominated again, could take the prize. In the end, however, Lawrence is just too good to ignore in Silver Linings Playbook, and her loss would be a major upset. As Silver Linings Playbook is the first movie up for all four acting Oscars in over thirty years, it should win something, and Lawrence remains the most likely to do this.Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty. It's a shame that the Oscars are not held in December, because then Zero Dark Thirty would have gotten the attention it deserves. It's a much better and more thrilling movie than The Hurt Locker, and this is largely due to Jessica Chastain's gender-transcending performance. One of the most underrated actresses out there, Chastain is awesome in this movie. Too bad she likely will not win.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Who Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln. This category is the toughest to call, with all five nominees equally as worthy of an Oscar. Plus, they're all previous winners, which makes it even harder to decide. But let's hypothetically remove Alan Arkin and Phillip Seymour Hoffman, who have not proved very exciting this season. That leaves Robert De Niro, Tommy Lee Jones, and Christoph Waltz. Dark horse Waltz, though he won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, along with Django Unchained just do not have the backing they need to take home such a competitive prize. Therefore, I choose Tommy Lee Jones' grouchy and scene-stealing work in Lincoln. He won the Screen Actor's Guild Award, and since actors represent the largest voting block of the Academy, Jones will probably take home the Oscar as well.
Who Should Win: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook. But wait, what about De Niro? He's awesome in Russell's film, and plays his first real tough guy in what seems like forever. De Niro has finally returned to what he's best at. And, he last won an Oscar for Raging Bull... in 1980. Yes, Robert De Niro, one of the greatest actors of all time, has not won an Academy Award for over thirty years. I'll let that one settle, and just hope that we can see him give a well-deserved acceptance speech tonight.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables. The other lock of the evening. Anne Hathaway cut her hair, shed weight, and perfected her mother's role. Out of all the good things to come out of this year's Les Miserables, Hathaway is certainly the best. Her performance of "I Dreamed a Dream" will continue to amaze for years to come.
Who Should Win: Hathaway, but Sally Field, Lincoln. While Hathaway broke our hearts, Mrs. Lincoln made us almost hate Lincoln himself. Only Sally Field could yell at Daniel Day-Lewis and have us take her side. I think her win would be worth it just to hear another "You like me!" speech.
Best Original Screenplay
What Will Win: Django Unchained. Like I said earlier, it has been a long time since Quentin Tarantino has won an Oscar. He's the favorite in this category, and for good reason: Django is a rip-roaring adventure with unforgettable dialogue. Tarantino + vengeance story + racist Southerners + bounty hunters + blood-fueled action scenes + Western setting = one heck of a good time.
What Should Win: Django Unchained, but Zero Dark Thirty. Zero Dark Thirty is the other major contender here, for it's tense screenplay and thrilling story. Maya was developed so wonderfully by writer Mark Boal, and it would be nice to be recognized for his achievement.
Best Adapted Screenplay
What Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook. Truly the best screenplay of the year, with an inspiring story, great characters, and hilarious lines. Without this screenplay, Russell's direction and the actor's performances would not nearly be as effective as they are. It deserves to win this prize more than any other nominated film this year.
Best Documentary Feature
What Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man. It's a documentary that's full of twists, heart, and inspiration. It appeals to the person inside all of us that just longs to be a rock star. All in all good fun.
What Should Win: 5 Broken Cameras. I liked Searching for Sugar Man, but this one was also enjoyable.
Best Animated Feature Film
What Will Win: Brave. In a category much more contested than people give it credit for, this one could go between three films: Brave, Frankenweenie, or Wreck-It Ralph. The mean age of the members of the Academy hurt video game-based Wreck-It Ralph's chances, though it was the most popular animated film of the year. Based on prior experience, Brave will likely take home the gold. It's a Pixar film, one of the Academy's favorites; plus, since Pixar did not win last year, and with the BAFTA win already in it's pocket, all signs seems to indicate Brave as the most formidable challenger.What Should Win: Frankenweenie. As much as I love Wreck-It Ralph, I really want Frankenweenie to win this award. Tim Burton has never won an Oscar before, and this is only his second nomination; he's an artist under-appreciated in the movie industry. Plus, Disney has never won an Animated Feature Oscar without Pixar, and they're certainly due for one. The fact that this film is an homage to horror films of Hollywood's past gives it a fighting chance, and one that I hope will prove enough to allow Tim Burton to finally win an Academy Award.
Best Foreign Language Film
What Will Win: Amour. It's up for Best Picture, Best Actress, and Best Original Screenplay. It's a universal favorite that certainly appeals to older viewers, featuring a love story between dying spouses. Amour will win Best Foreign Language Film.
The Short Subjects
What Will Win: Redemption (Documentary), Henry (Live Action), Paperman (Animated). Redemption has good heart, so I'm choosing this one. After seeing all the live action and animated nominated shorts, Henry and Paperman seem the most likely based on the Academy's mean age and track record.
What Should Win: Kings Point (Documentary), Death of a Shadow (Live Action), Paperman (Animated). I encourage everyone to check out both Death of a Shadow and Paperman. Death of a Shadow is a highly original story about stealing shadows and framing portraits right before death; Paperman was the intro video to Wreck-It Ralph, and reminds us of the magic of the movies. It's a story of fantasy and love at first sight- a truly uplifting and inspiring short animated film.
Best Film Editing
What Will Win: Argo. The editing in this movie is so tense and hair-raising that it will make you question your history knowledge. It's crisp style also makes it flow very nicely.
What Should Win: Argo, but Zero Dark Thirty. For the same reasons as Argo, you will forget we ever killed Osama bin Laden. The editing in this war film makes the final sequence one of the most thrilling ever shot.Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Cinematography, Best Visual Effects
What Will Win: Life of Pi. With 11 nominations, the Academy obviously enjoyed Life of Pi. Since it will not win any major category, expect it to sweep a ton of technical awards. Best Sound Editing could go to Zero Dark Thirty, but that film has not been as adored as Life of Pi.
What Should Win: Skyfall. James Bond has been infamously robbed of most Academy Awards. Skyfall is one of the franchise's best installments, so is a little love for it too much to ask? Roger Deakins, the cinematographer of the film, has been nominated numerous times without any wins. Zero Dark Thirty should also be recognized for its great sound, and The Avengers should win for it's magnificent Best Visual Effects.
Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Original Score and Best Original Song
What Will Win: Skyfall and "Skyfall". I think that this is Thomas Newman's year for Best Original Score, and he might beat the equally-as-worthy John Williams in the category. Adele's "Skyfall" is a welcome return to Bond theme songs of the past, and is also a popular favorite. With the singer locked in to perform at tonight's Academy Awards, expect Skyfall to run away with both music categories.
What Should Win: Skyfall and "Skyfall". While John Williams gave another memorable score in Lincoln, and Ted featured the great Norah Jones song "Everybody Needs a Best Friend", I just can't ignore Skyfall. I know I should be giving other options here, but these two are fantastic and, frankly, I want them to win more than the others. So, I'm saying they both will and should win the Oscar.
Enjoy the 85th Academy Awards, beginning tonight at 7 P.M., only on ABC. Good luck to all the nominees, and have fun!!!
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